Trumponomics Daily— Monday, February 13

The knives are out among Donald Trump’s top aides. That’s never an encouraging sign, but less than a month into his presidency, considering the rockiness of Trump’s rollout, it’s hardly surprising, either. First in line for the chopping block looks to be Michael Flynn, the president’s national security adviser. The former lieutenant general faces an uncertain future after new reporting suggests he lied both publicly and in private, to Vice President Mike Pence, about talks late last year with the Russian ambassador on lifting sanctions. He isn’t alone. Chief of staff Reince Priebus and press secretary Sean Spicer also appear to be on shaky ground with the boss, while Kellyanne Conway — officially counselor to the president, a title that comes without a formal portfolio — eyes a power grab amid the tumult.

Where does that leave Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs No. 2 now Trump’s top economic whisperer as chairman of the National Economic Council? Cohn, the most capable and stalwart advocate for corporate interests in the president’s inner circle, has proven a low-key operator in the early days of the Trump era — perhaps not the worst strategy as Shakespearean drama rages around him. But he made a debut of sorts over the weekend with a pair of friendly profiles in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. The takeaway is that Cohn has Trump’s confidence and a wide lane to forge the administration’s approach to tax reform, infrastructure spending, deregulation, and an Obamacare replacement. That could narrow once Steven Mnuchin (a Goldman contemporary of Cohn’s; they both made partner in 1994) is confirmed as Treasury secretary, a figure who typically takes the lead on tax code changes. The test of his influence internally could come if he’s forced into a confrontation with the more protectionist voices on the team, namely chief strategist Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro, chairman of a newly-formed trade council whose precise role hasn’t been defined yet. For the time being, though, with the economic cabinet all but bare under a president not known for going deep on policy substance, Cohn is emerging as a consequential power center unto himself.

Tory Newmyer

@torynewmyer

tory_newmyer@fortune.com

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Number of the day

-15 points

Trump's net approval rating, according to a new Gallup survey, has him underwater with voters. While other polls show his popularity remains in net positive territory, there's no doubt Trump is beginning his presidency with historically meager support. If the trend holds, the big question for Democrats is whether they will be able to translate antipathy toward Trump into significant gains in the 2018 midterm elections.