Trumponomics Daily—Tuesday, January 31
The big business backlash to President Trump’s immigration ban continues gaining steam. On the first full workday since Trump signed the order, opposition from the tech industry in particular consolidated, as voices from other industries — from Wall Street to Detroit — began registering their objections, too. And significantly, the pushback showed signs of morphing from calibrated statements of disapproval into active resistance. Amazon chief Jeff Bezos announced his company has reached out to Congressional leaders in both parties to work on a legislative response; meanwhile, the online retail giant, Expedia and Microsoft are backing a suit from the Washington state attorney general seeking a national restraining order on the White House directive. (The outlook for Silicon Valley’s relations with the new administration is only growing darker, with Trump expected to issue an executive order restricting visas for foreign-born tech talent and another killing a program that would have encouraged startup founders to immigrate to the U.S.)
An arguably bigger question for the corporate world: What does this episode predict about how the administration will pursue the rest of its agenda? Business types nervous about Trump’s populist talk on the trail took heart during the transition by noting the number from their own ranks tapped for prominent roles in the cabinet and beyond. These figures, the hope has gone, will act as a check on the nationalist impulse in Trump’s inner circle personified by chief strategist Steve Bannon. If the process that produced the ban is any indication, however, now would be a reasonable time to start worrying again. Bannon’s crew drafted the order without input from the administration’s top national security officials. Former Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, awaiting confirmation as Secretary of State, reportedly told the president’s political advisers he was stunned to have been left out of the loop. It’d be a mistake to draw conclusions too broadly eleven days in. But those interests betting, for example, that former Goldman Sachs president Gary Cohn, now a top economic adviser as Trump’s chair of the National Economic Council, will moderate Bannon and company when the administration turns its attention toward remaking the tax code and overhauling trade policy might want to reconsider their confidence.
At their first policymaking meeting of the new year today, central bankers will have to wrangle with a range of unknowns, unleashed by the Trump era, that will complicated the Fed's next steps.
The order will commission several different reviews of the federal government's offensive and defensive capabilities.
The order forces agencies to identify two regulations to eliminate for every new one proposed, but it could take months, at least, to implement and faces a likely court challenge.
The meeting comes after a number of public statements by Trump slamming what he's called preferential treatment the industry receives from federal policy.
Peter Navarro is accusing Germany of using an artificially cheap euro to gain a leg up on trade with the U.S. and others.
Smaller cities in the Midwest and South that went for Trump also have export-dependent economies, indicating they'd suffer the most from a trade war, a new Brookings study finds.
Number of the day
8 p.m. EST
Trump will announce his pick to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court in primetime tonight, launching what is sure to be a bloody and contentious confirmation battle with reality-TV flare amid ongoing fights with Congress over his cabinet picks and immigration ban.
Exxon’s Trump Bump is Running Out of Gas [Fortune]