• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back

3

Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026

1

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer

2

Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back

3

Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
TechRide-Hailing

Plenty of Room for Competition Among Ride Providers, Analysts Say

By
Reuters
Reuters
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Reuters
Reuters
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 26, 2016, 9:42 AM ET
Uber
Photograph by Al Seib — LA Times via Getty Images

Chinese powerhouse Didi Chuxing’s acquisition of Uber Technologies’ China operations marked the biggest move yet toward consolidation in an industry that many investors and Silicon Valley pundits view as a winner-take-all game.

On the day the Didi deal was announced earlier this month, Uber board member Bill Gurley said Uber’s rivals in other markets had a slim chance of splitting the market with the dominant player, just as Uber struggled to erode Didi’s share in China.

After China, the industry will consolidate in other markets, said Hans Tung, an Asia-focused investor and managing partner at GGV Capital, which backed Didi and Grab, a Singapore-based ride service.

“There will be a dominant No. 1,” he said that same day.

The consensus of 11 economists interviewed by Reuters, however, suggests an entirely different scenario, one of perpetual competition in a business with relatively few barriers to entry.

“That one firm wins is a narrow and not accurate way to think about these firms,” said David Evans, chairman of the Global Economics Group and co-author of a recent book that included Uber, Matchmakers: The New Economics of Multisided Platforms.

Ten other economists who have studied ride-hailing agreed that the growing industry, which UBS estimates to be a $40 billion market, has room for at least two successful players, and perhaps a few smaller ones.

Get Data Sheet, Fortune’s technology newsletter.

The industry, they said, has none of the elements that traditionally have enabled single companies to control a sector. If it is the first of its kind, a company can dominate markets that have huge infrastructure costs, such as putting up cell towers or laying pipes; a large workforce of employees with specialized skills; and customers who get locked into a service and have difficulty leaving for competitors.

Ride services, by contrast, are relatively cheap to start, depend on contract labor with no inherent loyalty or specialized skills, and have free apps that can be downloaded in seconds.

“You may not want to try a new social networking site if your friends aren’t on it,” Evans said. “But you don’t care what app your friends use for ride-hailing.”

‘Winner-Take-All’ or ‘Room for Two’?

The question of whether on-demand ride services will remain open to new players has vexed startups and investors since Uber started the industry seven years ago.

Companies taking on Uber include Lyft in the United States, Grab in Southeast Asia, Ola in India, and newer startups like New York City’s Juno. In the United States, in particular, part of Uber’s attraction to investors is the chance at grabbing the entire industry.

In a statement, Uber said: “The ridesharing industry around the world is highly competitive and innovative. That’s good for riders.”

Uber investor and board member Gurley argued that any competitor would need to pursue a different strategy—perhaps offering more luxury and high-end services—to successfully battle Uber in its strongest markets.

Didi, Ola, and Grab did not respond to requests for comment.

When business magnate Carl Icahn invested $100 million into Lyft in early 2015, he told media outlets he saw “room for two.” Chris Sacca, a prominent venture capitalist who invested in Uber, responded, “This is a winner-take-all game,” on Bloomberg television.

Lyft has hired an M&A firm and recently explored the possibility of acquisitions by several companies, a source familiar with the discussions said, and reports of a possible sale stimulated talk of whether it could compete with Uber.

Lyft says it can. In the United States, it says it more than tripled its drivers to about 315,000 in the last year. Between October and May it nearly doubled its annual gross revenue to $1.9 billion—although that figure does not reflect the many rider discounts and promotions Lyft offers.

Uber has 1.5 million drivers and projected $26 billion in gross revenue globally this year, based on a 2015 presentation for investors.

The Magic 3-Minute Mark

Last year, Lyft hit another benchmark: The wait time for a ride is three minutes, on par with Uber, said president and co-founder John Zimmer. At three minutes or less, a passenger will almost always complete the ride.

“You need a certain level of scale to get to three minutes,” Zimmer said, referring to the number of drivers and passengers. “Once you reach that, if someone else has more scale, it doesn’t matter.”

New York-based Juno has brought on 12,000 drivers since launching earlier this year and already has hit the three-minute wait time in Manhattan, said Co-founder and CEO Talmon Marco.

“This is a fairly local industry,” Marco said. “You can be a hero in New York and you can be zero in California, and it’s OK.”

For more on the Uber-Didi Chuxing deal, watch:

In India, Uber and Ola are neck and neck around 45% of the market each after Uber’s market share fell and Ola’s rose in 2015, according to market research firm 7Park Data.

The challenge for new startups, however, is that leading companies subsidize their drivers and passengers as they prioritize gaining market share over profit. Both Uber and Lyft have spent heavily on driver bonuses and rider discounts and promotional credits.

“Everything that has happened in this space is completely artificial and funded by a glut of VC money,” said Daniel Ramot, CEO and co-founder of startup Via, which completes about 200,000 rides each week in New York.

Economists argue that Lyft can be a profitable company with roughly 20% of a market, which would allow it to reduce expenses through economies of scale. Lyft and Uber only release market share statistics selectively, but Lyft maintains it has more than a 20% share in the majority of its top 20 regions.

An electric company, by comparison, would need massive scale to achieve enough efficiency to allow for profits, said Stephen Margolis, an economist and anti-trust expert at North Carolina State University.

Max Wolff, an economist at Manhattan Venture Partners, believes competition will thrive mainly because ride-hailing technologies are not overly complicated and drivers aren’t earning enough money to be loyal to a single company.

There is room for other players even if Uber is dominant, he said: “They’re not as big, but they’re there too. They’re not some wheezing, dying remnant.”

About the Author
By Reuters
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Tech

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Tech

View of SpaceX building
AICFO Daily
For SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen, the challenge starts after the $75 billion IPO 
By Sheryl EstradaJune 12, 2026
3 hours ago
SpaceX headquarters outside
Startups & VentureTerm Sheet
SpaceX’s first employee, Tom Mueller, thinks the historic IPO is just the beginning
By Lily Mae LazarusJune 12, 2026
5 hours ago
Elon Musk
InvestingMarkets
When SpaceX starts trading, some ‘shareholders’ will discover they own nothing at all
By Jim EdwardsJune 12, 2026
5 hours ago
Mo Jomaa of CapitalG, Nizar Tarhuni of PitchBook, and Hans Tung of Notable Capital at Fortune Brainstorm Tech 2026 in Aspen, Colorado. (Photo: Stuart Isett/Fortune)
NewslettersFortune Tech
The SpaceX IPO is not the market savior it seems
By Andrew NuscaJune 12, 2026
5 hours ago
Notion takes a quiet approach to designing AI features: ‘You can’t have every new tool screaming at you’
AsiaAI agents
Notion takes a quiet approach to designing AI features: ‘You can’t have every new tool screaming at you’
By Angelica AngJune 12, 2026
6 hours ago
Your AI is already setting prices. The real question is who sets the rules
AIAutomation
Your AI is already setting prices. The real question is who sets the rules
By François Candelon, Paul-Louis Andres and Augustin ManchonJune 12, 2026
6 hours ago

Most Popular

Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
Energy
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
2 days ago
Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back
Environment
Corporate America has been draining the world's water. Matt Damon's new campaign calls on Gap, Starbucks, and Amazon to help give it back
By Catherina GioinoJune 9, 2026
3 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 11, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 11, 2026
1 day ago
When SpaceX starts trading, some 'shareholders' will discover they own nothing at all
Investing
When SpaceX starts trading, some 'shareholders' will discover they own nothing at all
By Jim EdwardsJune 12, 2026
5 hours ago
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
Innovation
Marc Lore’s robots make 500 burrito bowls an hour. A human can make 45
By Amanda GerutJune 9, 2026
3 days ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
4 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.