• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

2

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

3

The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow

1

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for

2

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

3

The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
CommentaryIndia

Why India’s Central Banker Is Really Leaving

By
Mihir Kapadia
Mihir Kapadia
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Mihir Kapadia
Mihir Kapadia
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 13, 2016, 7:00 PM ET
RBI Governor Rajan attends a news conference after their bimonthly monetary policy review in Mumbai
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Raghuram Rajan attends a news conference after their bimonthly monetary policy review in Mumbai, India, June 7, 2016. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui/File Photo - RTSGH16Danish Siddiqui — Reuters
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Mihir Kapadia is CEO of Sun Global Investments, a London-based advisory firm.

Indian Central Bank Gov. Raghuram Rajan’s recent announcement that he would step down when his term ends in September has unnerved investors around the world. Rajan was widely credited for keeping India’s economy on a stable path; investors worldwide embraced his hawkish policies and greater push for banking reforms.

Judging by the way markets have responded to his exit last month, claims that India will suffer without Rajan is overdone if we look back at the response of Alan Greenspan’s departure from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2006. During the early years of his 20 years as Fed chairman, Greenspan was just as revered. Both Rajan and Greenspan inherited weak economies; their policies — and those of the government’s — brought a huge improvement to economic conditions. The ex-Fed Chairman lost his halo in 2008 when the U.S. economy fell into a financial crisis, and he had to bear the burden of his policies.

By comparison, Rajan’s performance didn’t appear to please the government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as officials and citizens grew frustrated with the lack of credit growth amid a slow growing economy. And while Rajan’s independent views echoed the views of other country’s central banks, they were sometimes accompanied by stern warnings that often infuriated the political elite. Rajan clashed with Modi’s government over interest rates; the governor preferred higher rates to guard against inflation while the government pushed for lower rates to stimulate growth.

So to suggest India will suffer without Rajan has very limited merit. It will be the policies of the government and future governors that will determine whether India finally achieves what it has been dreaming of in recent times: the coveted status of an economic superpower.

Despite frictions between Rajan and Modi’s government, officials had often lauded Rajan for his stewardship at the central bank. Indeed, his exit has come not only as a surprise, but an alarm for many investors. Realistically, as Rajan has suggested, the office of the governor is much bigger than an individual personality. Unlike its neighbors, India has been lauded for its independent institutions where its democracy — the world’s largest — has thrived in a region vulnerable to dynastic politics or authoritarian regimes.

Rajan has been influential. One of his most memorable moves came in October 2013 when he encouraged foreign investments into India at a time when the previous government did little amid various charges of scams and misrule. Rajan brought credibility back to a country that had squandered all its prospects and had gone from one of the world’s best growth-oriented economies to a sick one. If one was to look at his legacy, it would be adding credibility to India’s central bank as an institution the currency will continue to run on its own merit as it has for several decades, albeit with many of the improvements introduced under Rajan.

Under Modi, a lot has changed in India. Even though critics argue that the economic reforms he has promised have been slow to progress, the country thus far has not witnessed any of the corruption scams and inertia in decision-making seen with the previous government. Modi’s government has also not been averse to shaking up many of the unnecessary practices and laws that had burdened the country during the previous regime. They have introduced several new laws to support banks in recovering their dues, whilst simultaneously introducing new bankruptcy laws that will smoothen the procedures.

The government has prided itself on its quick policy making and there has been something of a patriotic zeal in their chest-beating over results – both delivered and hoped for. This is where Rajan has stumbled. His politically incorrect narrative infuriated several politicians who see the new government’s achievements being under-appreciated by both the governor and the world at large. They must certainly not like their successes being attributed solely to Rajan’s tenure as the governor.

Nonetheless, Rajan’s popularity can’t be dismissed. Announcement of his exit came amid the government’s sweeping efforts to reform foreign direct investments. There has been a dramatic FDI overhaul across no fewer than nine key sectors — a move that has surprised some, as government reforms typically take much longer to implement. The more cynical among us could perhaps suggest that the timing of India’s FDI reforms implies a certain desire by the government to deflect attention away from Rajan. However, the nature of the reforms, rather than the timing, is more interesting – they are seismic.

India was the largest foreign direct investment destination in the world last year in terms of investments announced, totaling some $63billion, and these further relaxations that Modi’s government has pushed through could help India consolidate its position. Consolidation is key at the moment, after all. India and its banks are currently lurching under the pressure of bad loans – admittedly, something that all developing markets seemingly must go through – and foreign direct investment is perhaps the only investment engine available to restart the growth cycle.

Corporate investment and exports have both slumped and foreign investment is seen as the solution – for pretty good reason. Modi’s government has been strong on business, strong on external diplomacy and, from the start, strong on opening India’s doors for foreign investment. FDI has brought success to Modi’s India, it would have been a real surprise if it wasn’t a focal point of his long-term plan for sustained economic success.

The flurry of relaxations in FDI is probably at least in part a product of Rajan leaving. However, the decision to relax norms in an attempt to make India the world’s most open economy for FDI is no knee-jerk reaction. Foreign direct investment has benefited the Indian economy massively in the two years since Modi swept into power, and he is now making sure that the positive sentiment between India and foreign investors outlives Rajan’s tenure at India’s central bank.

About the Author
By Mihir Kapadia
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Commentary

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in Commentary

craig
CommentaryPharmaceutical Industry
Big pharma’s patent cliff meets a new biotech Cold War: We need to outrun China, not outlaw it
By Craig GarthwaiteJuly 24, 2026
8 hours ago
tim
Commentarysmartphones and mobile devices
NYU Stern pricing expert: There’s a hidden ‘AI tax’ hitting Apple, Dell — and your next phone
By Srikanth JagabathulaJuly 24, 2026
8 hours ago
nyse
CommentaryEconomics
AI doesn’t end scarcity. It relocates it
By François Candelon, Paul-Louis Andres and Augustin ManchonJuly 24, 2026
10 hours ago
Can Bangkok future-proof itself against the heat?
CommentaryThailand
Can Bangkok future-proof itself against the heat?
By Curtis S. Chin and Ella TanJuly 23, 2026
22 hours ago
mm
CommentaryLeadership
Michael Muthukrishna: The ‘lone genius’ myth is wrong and it’s holding back your business
By Michael MuthukrishnaJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago
Paul Keary (L) and Mike Sutcliff (R).
CommentaryAI agents
Teneo & Thoughtworks CEOs: the AI race will be won with governance, not speed 
By Paul Keary and Mike SutcliffJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago

Most Popular

Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
Big Tech
Jensen Huang made his $172 billion fortune on AI chips. His family's $75 million gift to Vanderbilt argues art decides what technology is for
By Sydney LakeJuly 23, 2026
2 days ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
12 hours ago
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
Economy
The $39 trillion U.S. national debt isn’t as high as Japan’s and Singapore’s relative to economy size—and yet it's still worse somehow
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
Real Estate
The millennial generation has split, new Fed research shows: Those over 35 are edging toward boomer-style wealth, while everyone else falls behind
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 22, 2026
2 days ago
Spain lifted the World Cup, but the IRS still gets a cut of its $50 million pay day as players, coaches and refs all face complex U.S. “jock taxes”
Personal Finance
Spain lifted the World Cup, but the IRS still gets a cut of its $50 million pay day as players, coaches and refs all face complex U.S. “jock taxes”
By Joshua HongJuly 23, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 23, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 23, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 23, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.