• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living

3

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living

3

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
Leadership

Why 2016 Is a Nightmare Election for Pollsters

Erika Fry
By
Erika Fry
Erika Fry
Down Arrow Button Icon
Erika Fry
By
Erika Fry
Erika Fry
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 27, 2016, 1:00 PM ET
Illustration by Martin Laksman
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Closely watched and highly scrutinized, the polling industry has taken more of a beating than many candidates this campaign season. Yet a little handwringing over accuracy—and occasional fire from Donald Trump—is the least of problems for the American pollster, looking to make (statistically significant) sense of the opinions of an increasingly hard-to-reach American public. The bigger problem? It costs them more than ever to do so.

There are two main drivers of the rising cost of opinion polls: First, Americans, wise to telemarketing tricks and empowered by caller ID, are less and less likely to pick up the phone. The standard industry response rate has fallen from 36% in 1997 to 9% today according to Pew Research. And that can be even lower on cell phones, says Anna Greenberg, Democratic pollster and Vice President at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. This means a firm needs to make many more calls to complete a survey—a reality that requires either more time or more interviewers. David Dutwin, Executive Vice President and Chief Methodologist at the opinion research firm SSRS, says 10 years ago, one of every 20 calls would yield a response; now it’s approaching one in 50.

Second, as Americans have rapidly ditched landlines—47% of the population is “cellphone only” by the CDC’s last count—pollsters are increasingly surveying cellphone users, a population that is two to four times more expensive to reach, says Republican pollster Bill McInturff. This price differential is largely due to a law that forbids firms from calling cellphones like they would a landline—i.e. using an “autodialer”— and which requires an interviewer to punch out each number by hand. Last summer, the FCC went even further, issuing a clarification that forbid calls to cellphones from machines that have the “capacity” to autodial (one could argue an iPhone, or just about anything short of a rotary phone, has such capacity).

This controversial ruling effectively forced polling firms to replace their call center equipment, in which the autodialing function could be switched on and off. And such actions still have not protected firms from legal attack; McInturff, who conducts the NBC/WSJ poll and is co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, says he gets a claim per week accusing his firm of calling a cellphone from an autodialer. “This has become a very difficult, litigious way to try to make a living,” he says.

All told, Greenberg says a national ‘gold standard’ phone survey that two years ago cost $50,000 now costs at least $70,000.

The mounting costs of polls, which are passed on to the campaigns or media outlets that sponsor them, are causing many to experiment with cheaper, but less proven online alternatives or simply do fewer polls. Deeper-pocketed organizations, though, are eating it—reluctantly. “You want the same poll as last year?,” says Evans Witt, CEO of Princeton Survey Research Associates International, “It’ll cost more and take longer to do it. Those are two things you never want to say to a client.”

A version of this article appears in the February 1, 2016 issue of Fortune with the headline “Polling’s Price Tag Rises.”

About the Author
Erika Fry
By Erika Fry
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Leadership

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Leadership

Older worker sad at laptop
SuccessGen X
A quarter of young baby boomers and Gen Xers who’ve been laid off in the last decade are still unemployed—and 11% have taken pay cuts to work
By Emma BurleighJuly 4, 2026
9 hours ago
usa
North Americahistory
Before independence, America tried — and failed — to conquer Canada
By Sarah M.S. Pearsall and The ConversationJuly 4, 2026
9 hours ago
The 1964 box set that predicted Dylan going electric — and still explains American music today
Arts & EntertainmentMusic
The 1964 box set that predicted Dylan going electric — and still explains American music today
By Ted Olson and The ConversationJuly 4, 2026
9 hours ago
Ejay O'Donnell, Bart Szaniewski, and Grant Eastey wear Dad Gang hats in a factory
SuccessEntrepreneurship
Three dads started selling hats from a garage with $750—now they’ve sold $35 million worth, partnered with Gary Vee, and grown a community of fathers
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
12 hours ago
loco
Travel & LeisureEntrepreneurship
The World Cup is just now discovering Middle America’s big heart. These Irish bingo kingpins built a $24 million business knowing it all along
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 4, 2026
13 hours ago
JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?
MPWMost Powerful Women
JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?
By Emma HinchliffeJuly 4, 2026
15 hours ago

Most Popular

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
Law
Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
Success
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
15 hours ago
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
AI
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 3, 2026
2 days ago
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
Economy
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago
$25 billion CEO says one-hour interviews are a waste of time—he puts candidates through six hours of tests and wants them to order wine at lunch
Success
$25 billion CEO says one-hour interviews are a waste of time—he puts candidates through six hours of tests and wants them to order wine at lunch
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 3, 2026
2 days ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
7 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.