• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
FinanceToys

What a Holiday Toy Boom Will Mean for Investors

By
Chris Taylor
Chris Taylor
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Chris Taylor
Chris Taylor
Down Arrow Button Icon
November 17, 2015, 10:00 AM ET
Photo Illustration by Davies & Starr
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

In the original Star Wars movie, the Force is described by Jedi Master Obi-Wan Kenobi as an “energy field created by all living things. It surrounds us, penetrates us, and binds the galaxy together.”

Another characteristic of the Force: It seems to pry open parental wallets.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the latest installment of the megafranchise, premieres Dec. 18, right in the heart of holiday toy-buying season—and long after Star Wars merchandise hits the stores. The resulting shopping bonanza is expected to generate more than $375 million in sales this year alone for Hasbro, the toy giant with rights to most of the Star Wars products now invading shelf space like, well, Imperial Stormtroopers.

The Jedi holiday jolt, in turn, will cap what’s likely to be the toy industry’s best year in over a decade, according to Juli Lennett, senior vice president at research shop NPD Group’s U.S. toys division. NPD forecasts 6.2% growth this year over last, with U.S. sales nearing $20 billion. Among the big sales gainers through the first half of the year: games and puzzles (up 13%), action figures (8%), and dolls (8%). “It’s not just a strong year. It’s a great year,” says Lennett.

Still, many investors remain leery of the toy industry, and justifiably so. Publicly traded, pure-play toy companies are relatively few and relatively small—and since kids are famously fickle in deciding the next big thing in the school yard, toymakers’ revenue and stock prices can be volatile. That said, some analysts and money managers think this year’s toy-sales surge will continue—and that the stocks of some of the big names in the industry have more room to rise.

INV-12-01-15

One of the prime beneficiaries of this year’s boom, of course, is Hasbro (HAS), whose stock has already risen significantly thanks to Star Wars fever (see chart). Years ago, Hasbro bet that a “content driven” business model—selling more toys under licensing agreements with popular movie and TV franchises, from Jurassic World to Marvel’s Spider-Man—would bear the most fruit, says Stephanie Wissink, a managing director at Piper Jaffray.

INV.12.01.15.Darth.Vader
Photo Illustration by Davies & Starr

Now that bet is paying off. “Hasbro has been beating [earnings forecasts], capturing licenses away from Mattel, and getting in deeper with Disney,” says Wissink. “They just have huge velocity right now.” Wall Street expects that momentum to carry into 2016, producing earnings of about $4 per share, up 16% from 2015, according to consensus analyst estimates.

Hasbro’s story line has contrasted sharply with that of Mattel (MAT), the other industry behemoth, whose stock investors have beaten like a tomato can in recent years. The stock is down 19% this year, as Mattel’s stodgy reliance on fading franchises like Barbie and Hot Wheels has stung its sales. Still, Mattel retains considerable size and clout: Its revenue, expected to be $5.6 billion this year, is about 30% greater than Hasbro’s. And a recent strategy pivot that has freshened its product line, including a limited run of dolls in the image of pop star and Disney Channel regular Zendaya, has some investors seeing Mattel as an intriguing recovery candidate.

INV.12.01.15.R2D2
Courtesy of Hasbro

Linda Bolton Weiser, a research analyst at investment bank B. Riley & Co., upgraded Mattel to a buy after it named Christopher Sinclair permanent CEO in April. She anticipates a strong rebound next year, driven by lines like DC Super Hero Girls action figures (a venture with DC Comics) and a new license for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles merchandise. Her price target for the stock: $31, up more than 20% from current levels. Weiser also likes Mattel’s dividend, currently 6.1%, which the company has increased in recent years; she says Mattel has the cash flow to support the payout even if sales ebb. “For income investors like retirees, the stock is looking very attractive,” she says.

Another potential play for investors willing to take a risk on a small-cap: Jakks Pacific (JAKK), a Japanese toymaker that trades on the Nasdaq. A hefty 70% of its sales derive from licenses—industrywide, that figure is about 30%, according to NPD—with partners including Nickelodeon, DC Comics, and Saban’s Power Rangers. That heavy reliance on licenses, which can eventually expire or be transferred, means the stock carries greater long-term risk than those of competitors. The upside: Jakks trades at roughly a 50% discount to its peers.

The bumpy rides associated with smallish toy companies and their stocks may be more than some investors can tolerate. Those who want the smoother journey associated with megacap companies could play the toy market by investing in a company that collects royalties from many other toymakers’ licenses—namely, the almighty Disney (DIS). (For a closer look at the pros and cons of investing in Disney, see the next article.)

Ultimately, any investment in toys is an expression of faith in the first law of parental dynamics: People will continue to have babies, those babies will grow into toddlers, and those toddlers will throw tantrums to acquire the latest shiny thing they spot on store shelves. “There is an argument out there that kids are going to turn to mobile devices and never play with toys again,” says Piper Jaffray’s Wissink. “That is just not going to happen.”

A version of this article appears in the December 1, 2015 issue of Fortune with the headline “Toy Story.”

About the Author
By Chris Taylor
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Top CD rates from major banks on July 21, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on July 21, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 21, 2026
4 minutes ago
Current price of Bitcoin for July 21, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 21, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 21, 2026
17 minutes ago
Current price of Ethereum for July 21, 2026
Personal FinanceEthereum
Current price of Ethereum for July 21, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 21, 2026
17 minutes ago
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Economynational debt
Jamie Dimon won’t put more of his own money into the long end of the bond market right now—thanks to the $39 trillion national debt
By Eleanor PringleJuly 21, 2026
24 minutes ago
Current price of oil as of July 21, 2026
Personal FinanceOil
Current price of oil as of July 21, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 21, 2026
27 minutes ago
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Personal Financesilver
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, July 21, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 21, 2026
32 minutes ago

Most Popular

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
Success
Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
17 hours ago
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
Success
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
By Sydney LakeJuly 20, 2026
21 hours ago
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
AI
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
3 days ago
Warren Buffett says his $147 billion investing career was an accident: ‘I may be one of the 10 luckiest in the world’
Future of Work
Warren Buffett says his $147 billion investing career was an accident: ‘I may be one of the 10 luckiest in the world’
By Sarah GlodekJuly 20, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 20, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 20, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 20, 2026
1 day ago
It’s not just Taco Bell lettuce and possible glass in Pillsbury rolls: Food and drink recall events reached a 6-year year-over-year high
Retail
It’s not just Taco Bell lettuce and possible glass in Pillsbury rolls: Food and drink recall events reached a 6-year year-over-year high
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.