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FORTUNE — Once Apple’s (AAPL) biggest money maker, the Mac at 12% of total revenue is now No. 3 after the iPhone (52%) and iPad (20%).
[No. 4 at 7.6% and climbing fast is the category Apple calls “iTunes, Software and Services.”]
The good news for the axis of Apple’s digital hub strategy is that the year-over-year declines the Mac suffered for four quarters in a row in fiscal 2013 may have come to a halt.
Although a third of the 33 analysts we’ve heard from so far — 13 amateurs and 20 Wall Street professionals — think Apple will report another decline in unit sales next week, two thirds believe sales actually rose year over year.
The average analyst’s estimate is just over 4 million Macs, a 2.8% increase over the same quarter last year. The pros (at 4.1 million) are slightly — but only slightly — more bullish than the amateurs (4 million) this time around.
The high estimate of 4.84 million Macs, submitted by ISI’s Brian Marshall, would represent year-over-year growth of 22.5%. The low estimate (3.65 million) from the Braeburn Group’s Kirk Burgess, would mean a decline of 7.6%.
We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q2 2014 earnings after the markets close on Wednesday, April 23.
Below: The individual analyst’s estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks once again to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
