• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

1

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'

2

Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal

3

'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down

What could cause the next financial crisis

By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Stephen Gandel
Stephen Gandel
Down Arrow Button Icon
April 26, 2013, 4:37 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.
Lehman Brothers employees take leave in 2008.

FORTUNE — Too big to fail. Interest rates. Borrowing. Fire-sales. The Flash Crash. Risky loan deals. Libor. Cyber attacks. Europe. Japan. China.

Cattle plague was not on the list.

On Thursday, the super council of bank regulators created after the financial crisis put out a list of their best guesses as to what could cause the next financial crisis. The most surprising thing about the list: It’s length.

That alone should be enough to rattle your faith in Dodd-Frank, the set of banking regulations that were passed in 2010. Nearly three years later, the number of things that could blow up the financial system still seems way too high.

MORE: Despite cautious talk, banks push risky deals

What we are better at is making lists. Beside the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which put out the current list, the Treasury Department also has a new research group that studies financial innovations for potential problems. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau details areas where banks could be ripping people off, most recently auto and payday-like lending. And in a few months the FSOC is about to disclose the financial firms so important that a failure of one of them could hurt the economy and possibly cause another crisis, which is another list.

The question is whether all this list-making is helpful.

One of the biggest issues on yesterday’s list of financial risks is too big to fail. The council’s report says big banks may be able to borrow more and cheaper if there is an assumption that the government will bail them out if they get into trouble. That extra money could result in banks taking on excessive risk.

The problem is that the government itself doesn’t seem to be taking this risk seriously. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has been mum on the subject. Other Treasury officials have tried to downplay it. Last week, Mary Miller, a top Treasury official, said there could be a number of reasons big banks get lower lending rates. They may just be less risky, which is of course why they ended up on the FSOC’s list.

MORE: Apple proves that lower corporate tax rates don’t matter

Rising interest rates, which also shows up on the FSOC’s list, does seem like a concern. JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon in his recent annual letter to shareholders said that his bank was giving up a significant amount of income in order to protect itself from rising interest rates. If rates were to rise like they did back in 1994, Dimon said JPMorgan (JPM) could make $5 billion.

While it’s on the list, regulators don’t seem as concerned. The FSOC says that there does appear to be some reaching for yield and that a sudden rise in interest rates could causes losses at the banks. But it dismisses the risk by saying banks have more capital than they used to, which is true. But that still doesn’t mean banks have enough.

The FSOC says they are also worried about the recent increase of issuance of riskier bonds in particular collateralized debt obligations, which are deals that package up leveraged loans and sell them off to investors. But they also say that CLOs seem less risky than they did before the financial crisis. That seems to ignore recent reports that say more than half of the loans in CLOs carry few protections for investors, which is higher than before the lending bust.

The risk of slowdowns or recession in Europe, Japan, and China are on the FSOC’s list as well, even though there is little U.S. regulators can do about that. The fact that Libor and other lending rates may be inaccurate is also on the list. The reason being that manipulation may make people more-or-less worried about the banks and the economy than they should be. But what we are worried about here is banks. The fact that Libor was being manipulated seems to be one of Wall Street’s worst-kept secrets, so is any bank really being tricked by it? Also on the list: The risk that the fake Libor rate could disappear, giving banks nothing to trick themselves with. Go figure.

MORE: How risky is Goldman Sachs?

Other things that show up on the list – money laundering for one – are bad, but not really things that would cause a major bank to fail, unless there was a massive fraud. Widespread fraud, however, is not on the list.

But the biggest problem with listing the things that will result in our financial doom is that inevitably we get it wrong. The things that result in our financial doom are the ones we didn’t see coming — black swans. And while the FSOC does detail what could go wrong, they spend much of their time saying why it won’t. Perhaps the best thing we could do is hop a time machine back to early 2007 (the pre-financial-crisis era) and ask regulators to produce a list of things that could cause the banking sector to blow up. My guess is the list would be just as dismissive.

This week Senators Sherrod Brown and David Vitter proposed a bill that significantly ups the amount of money banks have to have on hand to cover bad bets and soured loans. Currently, we are at 9%. The senators would like more like 15%. I can’t say I am a huge fan of this. There are unintended costs, and there seems to be no limit to the thinking. (Why not make it 200%? That’s really safe.)

But the senators’ point and ones who support the measure is a good one. We don’t know where the risks are going to come from. The only answer is holding more capital than we think necessary. Lists, however, give the impression that regulators and banks know what’s out there. The first step in making our banking sector safer is acknowledging that this is impossible.

About the Author
By Stephen Gandel
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • TikTok icon
  • YouTube icon

Latest in

No, Miami isn’t more expensive than New York. But it may be less ‘affordable’
Real Estatehomebuying
No, Miami isn’t more expensive than New York. But it may be less ‘affordable’
By Catherina GioinoJuly 26, 2026
49 minutes ago
The Trump administration has accrued roughly $26.7 billion across 30 equity or quasi-equity deals
EconomyDonald Trump
The U.S. government invested $27 billion in corporate stakes. Good luck finding them
By Eva RoytburgJuly 26, 2026
1 hour ago
raikes
CommentaryMicrosoft
Jeff Raikes: The talent debt I warned about is now showing up in the data
By Jeff RaikesJuly 26, 2026
2 hours ago
Salary Transparent Street creator Hannah Williams
SuccessCareers
This millennial job-hopped every 6 months to $90K by the time she was 23—she left it all behind to become a salary negotiation guru
By Emma BurleighJuly 26, 2026
2 hours ago
beatles
CommentaryLeadership
George Martin never out-wrote the Beatles. That’s exactly why he’s the AI leadership lesson we need now
By Jeff DeGraffJuly 26, 2026
3 hours ago
Photo of young woman in a red dress observing the man she's talking to
Economylifestyle
College women are snapping up the highest-earning men without college degrees, leaving the rest further behind
By Mia OsmonbekovJuly 26, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
Real Estate
The millennial generation is split in 2: an older crowd with boomer-style comfort, a younger set going 'back to the early 1900s'
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
Middle East
Trump pulls back after Iran crosses his red line as U.S. military breaks two-week streak of airstrikes amid talks for potential Hormuz deal
By Jason MaJuly 25, 2026
18 hours ago
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
Economy
'The demographic dividend of the last 40 years is ending': J.P. Morgan says the world is running out of the two things that kept interest rates down
By Eleanor PringleJuly 24, 2026
2 days ago
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
Success
An 11-year-old is cleaning his neighbors' trash cans for $10 each—he now has 100K followers as teens face the worst summer job market since 1948
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
Startups are installing tiny data centers in people’s homes to reduce strain on the beleaguered electrical grid
Environment
Startups are installing tiny data centers in people’s homes to reduce strain on the beleaguered electrical grid
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 25, 2026
1 day ago
A Hims cofounder fired his entire marketing team for AI. Now his 24/7 online vet service is growing 20% a month
Success
A Hims cofounder fired his entire marketing team for AI. Now his 24/7 online vet service is growing 20% a month
By Sydney LakeJuly 25, 2026
24 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.