• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

Let’s revisit Ed Zabitsky’s $270 per share Apple price target

By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Philip Elmer-DeWitt
Down Arrow Button Icon
March 7, 2013, 8:38 AM ET

Zabitsky

FORTUNE — I’ve received eight e-mails in the past two days from a reader named Greg Bates who thinks I really ought to take another look at Ed Zabitsky, now that Apple (AAPL) is trading in the low 400s.

You may recall that Zabitsky, who runs a one-man boutique in Toronto called ACI Research, got more than his 15 minutes of fame in 2012 after he set a $270 price target on Apple when shares were trading for $450. That earned him six minutes of face time on CNBC and press coverage in Bloomberg, Forbes, Slate and the New York Times, to name just a few.

I was pretty harsh on Zabitsky last year, especially when he reiterated his $270 Apple price target through two parabolic rallies — first to $644, then to over $700. Among my Zabitsky hits:

  • Does anyone care what Ed Zabitsky says about Apple? (2/18/2012)
  • Analyst: ‘The entire cellphone and computing ecosystem will be shaken to the ground’ (4/10/2012)
  • The unrepentant Ed Zabitsky and his $270 Apple price target (4/27/2012)
  • Ed Zabitsky: The ‘Wrong Way’ Corrigan of Apple analysts (12/4/2012)

I thought I’d sworn off the Zabitsky beat after that last one. It felt like I was feeding a troll. Or beating a masochist. So I resisted Bates’ idea — until he dug up a story published Monday in the Epoch Times under the headline:


Apple Shares on Decline: Analyst’s 2012 Sell Call Justified
Zabitsky redeemed as Apple shares trade at 52-week low

The piece cites some of my harsher remarks and then offers this quote from Zabitsky:

“I was right last year. I’ve been right over the last year, that’s all you can say.”

Really?

Let’s look at the chart I posted above. The red line represents Zabitsky’s $270 price target. The green area above is how wrong he’s been for the past 14 months. He’s less wrong today than he was last September, but that doesn’t make him smart.

Is it possible that he will eventually be proved right?

Anything is possible, I suppose. But let me put it this way: As of last quarter, Apple was holding $137.1 billion in cash and marketable securities, or about $146 per share. When you back that out of Wednesday’s closing price $425.66, you get a stock that’s selling for $279.66 ex-cash.

In other words, Zabitsky’s $270 price target gives a company the Street expects will generate revenues of roughly $183 billion in 2013 a value ex-cash of less than $10.

Or, to put at it another way, Zabitsky’s 2-year price target means that he believes in Jan. 2014 Apple will be selling ex-cash for $270 minus $146, or $124 per share — assuming Apple cash hoard does’t grow a penny in the next 10 months.

To give Zabitsky his due, it’s true that if you’d followed his advice and shorted Apple in September or December, you would have made out like a bandit. But it’s also true that if you’d shorted Apple as he suggested in January or April 2012, you’d probably be too broke by September to be playing Apple one way or another.

About the Author
By Philip Elmer-DeWitt
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

Xbox CEO Asha Sharma
SuccessCareers
Xbox’s CEO spent her early career taking out trash and selling coupon books—she says the secret to her rise was never obsessing over a dream career
By Preston ForeJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
Boris Cherny, Head of Claude Code
SuccessHiring
The architect behind Claude Code reveals the three things Anthropic looks for in a good hire—and why people with low ego are a must
By Emma BurleighJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
Meryl Streep says she was ‘ready to retire’ when the call for ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ came—so she demanded they double her salary or nothing
SuccessThe Promotion Playbook
Meryl Streep says she was ‘ready to retire’ when the call for ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ came—so she demanded they double her salary or nothing
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago
Trump sits at the Resolute Desk with his hands folded
AIImmigration
OpenAI and Nvidia CEOs didn’t flinch at Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee, and now they’re paying up as their application numbers soar
By Jacqueline MunisJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago
knicks
SuccessNew York
‘Knicks in 6. 2026 NBA Finals’: Why did this New Yorker make a prophecy in his 2020 high school yearbook?
By Philip Marcelo and The Associated PressJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago
platner
PoliticsElections
Graham Platner easily prevails over attempts to derail progressive Senate candidacy in Maine
By Patrick Whittle, Kimberlee Kruesi and The Associated PressJune 10, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
Investing
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
By Eva RoytburgJune 9, 2026
20 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.