Two analysts diverge on when (and if) Apple will build a TV set

August 17, 2012, 3:55 PM UTC

FORTUNE — Jefferies’ Peter Misek is full of confident predictions in a note to clients issued Friday. Based on his supply chain checks and sales data out of Taiwan, he believes:

  • iPad builds for Apple’s (AAPL) September quarter have been increased to 25 million from 18 million and to 30 million from 22-25 million for December.
  • That the company will have 15 million new iPhones in stock for a mid-September launch — the “biggest handset launch in history”
  • That the iPad Mini is in production at Hon Hai’s (Foxconn’s) plants in China
  • That Apple’s rumored Sept. 12 event is likely to include “an announcement of the iPhone 5, possibly of the iPad Mini, and less likely of the iTV”
  • Finally, that Apple’s iTV — analyst code for a full-fledged Apple-branded television set — is already in production

With all that product in the pipeline, Misek has raised his 12-month price target to $900, up a cool $100.

J.P. Morgan’s Mark Moskowitz is considerably less sanguine, particularly about the prospects of that Apple television set.

“While the ultra-bulls on Apple have been incorporating a full-fledged TV into their longer-term estimates,” he writes, “our view continues to be that Apple does not jump headfirst into the TV market with a full-fledged TV offering in the near to mid-term. First, there could be an expanded version of the “hockey puck” Apple TV box, which could evolve into more of a set-top box module over time. The timing of this event could be C2013 at the earliest, in our view. The second stage, which is likely a C2014 or later event, could be a full-blown Apple TV, including display, speakers and gesture control.”

But, he adds,

“The aggressive pricing environment could deter Apple from entering the TV market. Currently, we are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the challenged TV market. Factors that could ease our concerns include radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming and data content, and use of gesture or voice control. Until such time, we are skeptical that end customers would be willing to pay the Apple premium for a TV.”

Last I heard, J.P. Morgan’s price target for Apple was $695.

See also: Apple and the stupid cable box.