• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

3

Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

3

Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds

Why Madrid’s shell game backfired

By
Cyrus Sanati
Cyrus Sanati
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Cyrus Sanati
Cyrus Sanati
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 24, 2012, 2:34 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

FORTUNE — It looks like the bond markets are done cutting Spain financial slack. Bond yields for Spanish sovereign debt broke well past the critical 7% mark Monday, hitting as high as 7.57%, on concerns that the government in Madrid will soon need a big sovereign bailout, thought to be around 300 billion euros. European and US stock markets fell on the news, with the S&P down 2.5% on the day.

This all comes days after eurozone leaders approved a 100 billion euro bailout of Spain’s crippled banking sector. But instead of things getting better, they have clearly just gotten worse.

In a bitter twist of irony, it seems that the bank bailout may have actually hastened the need for a possible full sovereign bailout as it has crushed investor demand for any kind of Spanish debt. This not only affected the sovereign but has also locked the nation’s 17 states or “regions” out of the bond market as well, forcing them to look to Madrid for a bailout of their own. If Spain doesn’t receive a comprehensive and fair bailout from its eurozone partners soon, the euro could very well end here.

It was only a matter of time before the markets caught on to Madrid’s shell game. In its 100 billion euro bank bailout, the Spanish government essentially socialized bank losses by simply transferring those losses from the banks to the government’s balance sheet. If that wasn’t bad enough, it also forced the banks’ subordinated bondholders to take a hit on the value of their investment, but allowed the senior debt holders to walk away with full value.

MORE: Reinventing Spain’s economy

In a corporate bankruptcy, it is true that equity holders and subordinated debt holders are at the bottom of the payout heap. But this is different. The subordinated bondholders in the nation’s banks were mostly (around two-thirds) made up of small-time investors who bought that debt thinking it was safe, often on the advice of their personal financial advisors. With the Spanish stock market down by a third this year, the Spanish investor has really taken a hit. This comes on top of the nation’s depression-like 25% unemployment rate.

But in pushing the losses on the little guy, the Spanish government basically shot itself in the foot. That’s because the local and regional bond markets in Spain are largely supported by local investors. After getting burned by the national government in the bank bailout, Spanish investors have understandably shunned government debt. With international investors and big pension funds out of the Spanish market for nearly a year, there is really no one left to buy up all that local Spanish debt.

Spain has tried to calm the situation with its regions by creating its own 18-billion euro bailout mechanism. But those 18 billion euros will be financed by selling more sovereign debt, which, at 7.57% would be prohibitively expensive.

That is partly why the market anticipates Spain will soon need a full on bailout from the EU. The national government is now responsible for covering the debts of its regions, as well as its own. It turns out that Spain’s official debt-to-GDP ratio didn’t give an accurate picture of the country’s sovereign risk. That’s because it didn’t take into account the billions of euros of off-balance sheet items from its regions. Since those debts were implicitly backed by the national government, the market now believes that Madrid will need to take over the payments. Add in those off-balance sheet items and the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio jumps from 68.5% to 87%, according to the Bank of Spain. Top it off with the 100 billion euros bank bailout and the ratio jumps to around 96%.

MORE: Tech investors brace for a cruel summer

The national government cannot afford to finance its own debt at 7.57% for very long, let alone support its 17 regions as well. It already has the European Central Bank buying its debt to keep rates low but they are still too high. Traders in European debt tell Fortune that they believe the ECB will try to calm the melee by instituting another round of quantitative easing, which is known as LTRO in Europe, but which is still essentially just a fancy way of saying: “printing more money.”  The hope is that all this extra money in the system will boost investment and lending, lowering bond yields and taking the pressure off the national government.

But there is a limit to what the ECB can do here. It simply cannot finance Spain’s debt forever, just as Madrid cannot finance the debt of its regions forever. If Spain is unable to reopen its bond markets to private investors quickly, then it will soon be facing default.

The bond markets are clearly looking for a real long term solution to the euro question, but eurozone leaders are slow in getting there. In the meantime, a large and powerful sovereign bailout of Spain would help stabilize the markets – at least in the short term. Such a bailout would essentially exhaust what’s left of the European bailout fund, forcing eurozone members to either put up more money, which probably won’t happen, or to finally work to form a closer and more stable union. Either way, it appears as if the euro stops here with Spain.

About the Author
By Cyrus Sanati
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

k
Commentary250 Years of Innovation
Media leadership unity in defying Trump’s assault on Free speech: standing tall against historic comparisons
By Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Jeff Bewkes, Kay Koplovitz and Tom GlocerJuly 4, 2026
36 minutes ago
Ejay O'Donnell, Bart Szaniewski, and Grant Eastey wear Dad Gang hats in a factory
SuccessEntrepreneurship
Three dads started selling hats from a garage with $750—now they’ve sold $35 million worth, partnered with Gary Vee, and grown a community of fathers
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
1 hour ago
loco
Travel & LeisureEntrepreneurship
The World Cup is just now discovering Middle America’s big heart. These Irish bingo kingpins built a $24 million business knowing it all along
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 4, 2026
2 hours ago
How a third-generation Texas oilman transformed an organic farming company into a leading advanced nuclear startup at a small Christian college
EnergyNuclear
How a third-generation Texas oilman transformed an organic farming company into a leading advanced nuclear startup at a small Christian college
By Jordan BlumJuly 4, 2026
4 hours ago
JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?
MPWMost Powerful Women
JPMorgan built a pipeline of female CEO candidates that was the envy of Wall Street. How did it fall apart?
By Emma HinchliffeJuly 4, 2026
4 hours ago
Elon Musk with a black DOGE hat
SuccessWealth
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ every day Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
4 hours ago

Most Popular

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
Law
Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
AI
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 3, 2026
1 day ago
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
Economy
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
2 days ago
On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s 'misleading' job numbers
Economy
On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s 'misleading' job numbers
By Jim EdwardsJuly 3, 2026
24 hours ago
$25 billion CEO says one-hour interviews are a waste of time—he puts candidates through six hours of tests and wants them to order wine at lunch
Success
$25 billion CEO says one-hour interviews are a waste of time—he puts candidates through six hours of tests and wants them to order wine at lunch
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJuly 3, 2026
1 day ago
In Iran, regime officials who survived the war intended to kill them appear in public for dayslong funeral of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei
Politics
In Iran, regime officials who survived the war intended to kill them appear in public for dayslong funeral of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei
By Nasser Karimi, Jon Gambrell and The Associated PressJuly 3, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.