• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

As CEO of the $96 billion Sam’s Club, Latriece Watkins is testing her mettle at the warehouse retailer that produced CEOs for Walmart, Target, and Walgreens

2

As AI slashes white-collar jobs, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff says almost no one is being hired—except in sales

3

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year

1

As CEO of the $96 billion Sam’s Club, Latriece Watkins is testing her mettle at the warehouse retailer that produced CEOs for Walmart, Target, and Walgreens

2

As AI slashes white-collar jobs, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff says almost no one is being hired—except in sales

3

Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
FinanceTerm Sheet

It’s time for economic theory to evolve

Fortune Editors
By
Fortune Editors
Fortune Editors
Down Arrow Button Icon
Fortune Editors
By
Fortune Editors
Fortune Editors
Down Arrow Button Icon
December 16, 2011, 7:11 PM ET

By Kevin Kaiser, Hedgeye

I graduated with a degree in economics from Princeton University; looking back at old textbooks and syllabi, and listening to former professors debate current economic issues, I can’t help but feel like I “dropped a hundred and fifty grand on an education [I] could’ve gotten for a dollar fifty in late charges from the public library,” to quote one of my favorite movies, Good Will Hunting.

But it seems that I’m not alone. Last month, seventy freshmen at Harvard walked out of Gregory Mankiw’s introductory Economics 10 lecture; they wrote to the well-known economist that his course “espouses a specific – and limited – view of economics that we believe perpetuates problematic and inefficient systems of economic inequality in our society today.” And that, “As your class does not include primary sources and rarely features articles from academic journals, we have very little access to alternative approaches to economics.”

Post-Keynesian economist Steve Keen wrote that “Economics is too important to leave to the economists.” If you’ve never heard of him it’s because he doesn’t write for the New York Times or dine in Davos, though in 2010 he did win the Revere Award for Economics for being “the economist who first and most cogently warned the world of the coming Global Financial Crisis.”

Keen, author of Debunking Economics, is a harsh critic of mainstream economists. While he warned as early as 2001 that “economic theory has been complicit in encouraging America’s investing public to once again delude itself into a crisis,” neoclassicists like Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Tim Geithner were our economic leaders that empowered the private sector to lever up to an unsustainable level (private sector debt to GDP of 300%) and gave no warning of imminent danger. Even today they fail to apply appropriate policies to lift us out of the recession because they don’t understand what caused it.

Like those Harvard freshmen, Keen isn’t afraid to say that today’s ‘Emperors of Economics’ aren’t wearing any clothes. He’s right.

The economists that make the world’s crucial monetary policy decisions are the same economists that I listened to in lecture halls and who authored my textbooks. While superficially appealing, their theories lack empirical evidence, are riddled with internal inconsistencies, and are based upon tenuous assumptions. Specifically, their models are built on downward sloping demand curves, upward sloping supply curves, perfect competition, rational consumers, benevolent dictators, and general equilibrium; there is no dynamic analysis, no consideration of disequilibrium, and no role of private sector debt.

New global hot spots for investors

What real-world, market economy adheres to the principles defined by our leading economists?

There isn’t one. That’s why Milton Friedman argued that a theory cannot be judged by its assumptions, but only by the accuracy of its predictions. But that defense doesn’t hold up so well after every neoclassical economist failed to predict the financial crisis and ensuing recession. In fact, in August 2008, Olivier Blanchard, professor at MIT and now chief economist at the IMF plainly stated that, “The state of macro is good.” Somehow, even when groupthink’s policy resulted in turmoil the world over, economic leaders failed to judge modes of economic thought by the accuracy of their predictions. As a result, the same actors – Geithner, Bernanke et al. – remain in systemically-important roles even after being proved wrong pre- and post-2008.

As Keen puts it, neoclassical economists are “wedded to the belief that capitalism is inherently stable. They cannot bring themselves to consider the alternative perspective that capitalism is inherently unstable, and that the financial sector causes its most severe breakdowns.”

Rather than expanding the range of phenomena that economics can explain, the leading edge of neoclassical theory focuses on defending the core beliefs from the attacks of ancillary views. It is truly a degenerative science, if economics can be considered a science at all. True sciences expand and evolve: genetics, psychology, quantum mechanics, astronomy. Economics defends itself – it is an ideology.

On scientific progress, German physicist Max Planck said that, “Science advances one funeral at a time.” And Keen concurs: “You cannot persuade people who believe a mythical vision of reality and their whole lives are dedicated to believing that way.”

As it pertains to the leadership of our globally-interconnected economy, we’re more optimistic. The American people’s frustration demands a faster rate of change than “one funeral at a time.” Whereas academic economists move at a glacial pace (if they are moving at all), the people are unafraid of change – they will fold a losing hand. Public opinion polls have shown for some time the dissatisfaction of the American people with Bernanke’s performance, for instance.

Americans want to stop playing with perennial losers, while potential winners are left on the bench.

London’s great debate: Can it survive as a financial hub?

Including concepts from complexity theory, evolutionary economics, Austrian economics, Post-Keynesian economics, and other alternative economic schools – all shunned by today’s monetary and fiscal policy leaders – would be a positive change on the margin. What we need is an economic theory that is more relevant to a modern capitalist economy – one that embraces uncertainty and disequilibrium, is grounded upon realistic assumptions, is judged by the accuracy of its predictions, and where debt and money are implicit, important factors.

Like Wall Street 1.0, Economics 1.0 is broken and has to evolve. Keen aptly states, “If economics is to become less of a religion and more of a science, then the foundations of economics should be torn down and replaced.” We are on the way.

 

About the Author
Fortune Editors
By Fortune Editors
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

As part of her Citi turnaround, Jane Fraser cut management layers from 13 to 8. But the ‘great flattening’ doesn’t always work as intended
C-SuiteManagement
As part of her Citi turnaround, Jane Fraser cut management layers from 13 to 8. But the ‘great flattening’ doesn’t always work as intended
By Claire ZillmanMay 30, 2026
1 hour ago
Matt Rogers
Commentarystart-ups
I worked with Steve Jobs at Apple, where every OS update killed startups. AI founders are about to face the same thing
By Matt RogersMay 30, 2026
2 hours ago
grid
Environmentpower grid
The U.S. power grid isn’t one big machine — it’s three. That’s a problem for blackout season
By Sufan Jiang, Fangxing Fran Li and The ConversationMay 30, 2026
2 hours ago
warsh
EconomyInflation
High gas prices are just the start — inflation is seeping into the rest of the economy
By D. Brian Blank, Brandy Hadley and The ConversationMay 30, 2026
2 hours ago
sam
CommentaryChips
The AI economy could crash on mounting chip costs — and those token costs won’t help
By Rakesh KumarMay 30, 2026
3 hours ago
TIAA CEO Thasunda Brown Duckett is trying to fix America’s broken retirement system
Personal Financechief executive officer (CEO)
TIAA CEO Thasunda Brown Duckett is trying to fix America’s broken retirement system
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezMay 30, 2026
3 hours ago

Most Popular

As CEO of the $96 billion Sam’s Club, Latriece Watkins is testing her mettle at the warehouse retailer that produced CEOs for Walmart, Target, and Walgreens
Magazine
As CEO of the $96 billion Sam’s Club, Latriece Watkins is testing her mettle at the warehouse retailer that produced CEOs for Walmart, Target, and Walgreens
By Emma HinchliffeMay 27, 2026
3 days ago
As AI slashes white-collar jobs, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff says almost no one is being hired—except in sales
Success
As AI slashes white-collar jobs, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff says almost no one is being hired—except in sales
By Emma BurleighMay 28, 2026
2 days ago
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
Success
Jeff Bezos wants the bottom half of earners to pay zero income tax—he says nurses making just $75K should save $12K a year
By Preston ForeMay 21, 2026
9 days ago
Current price of oil as of May 29, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of May 29, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerMay 29, 2026
1 day ago
UBS says Ron DeSantis has a problem with his plan to help 92% of homeowners save on property taxes: His own state's data
Personal Finance
UBS says Ron DeSantis has a problem with his plan to help 92% of homeowners save on property taxes: His own state's data
By Nick LichtenbergMay 28, 2026
2 days ago
Jamie Dimon tells Gen Z to 'learn how to think, learn how to earn respect' as he describes 'great meeting' with Zohran Mamdani
Success
Jamie Dimon tells Gen Z to 'learn how to think, learn how to earn respect' as he describes 'great meeting' with Zohran Mamdani
By Nick LichtenbergMay 29, 2026
22 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.