A report from America’s biggest foreign creditor is the latest to ding the gold-plated reputation of U.S. Treasury debt.
A Chinese credit rating agency issued a report this weekend saddling the United States with a double-A rating, while warning that slow growth and budget problems could prompt further downgrades here and in other big Western economies.
Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. ranks the United States as riskier than a dozen other nations, including China, Canada, Australia and Saudi Arabia. The company says it is privately owned, though the state-run Xinhua news agency presented the findings as China’s own sovereign credit rating report.
Dagong explained the ratings by saying more wealth will be created in coming years in less indebted nations.
“For some emerging market economies, with the rapid economic development, the continuous improvement in both the institutional strength and the government fiscal conditions will inevitably bring about upgrading of their ratings,” Dagong said. “For some developed countries, due to the long-term stagnation of economic growth, there are obvious declines in their comprehensive institutional strength, and their fiscal conditions turn to be fragile. As a result, their positions in the credit rating sequence are to be adjusted downwards inevitably.”
The three big U.S.-based rating agencies, Moody’s , Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, all rate the United States triple-A in spite of concerns about its deteriorating fiscal position. But the rating agencies have been widely panned for their role in stoking the housing bubble, which has left investors searching for new sources of credit ratings.
“It is not surprising to see new rating agencies start up to provide information and analysis to investors,” said Malay Bansal, a managing director at New Oak Capital in New York. “The more opinions the better.”
The Dagong report ranks Britain and France, also triple-A credits in the view of S&P and Moody’s, double-A minus with a negative outlook. It gives China a double-A-plus rating with a stable outlook, compared to single-A-plus at S&P.
Dagong says there are reasons for this, though you may find it hard to keep a straight face reviewing them.
Firstly, it reflects Dagong’s fundamental position that Dagong does not to apply ideology as demarcation and fairly maintains interests of various circles in the national credit relationships; Secondly, it reflects that Dagong is nimble to grasp the pulse of the times, with forward-looking and predictive judgment; Finally, it also reflects Dagong’s courage to meet the course of epoch and a high sense of historical responsibility.
Courage of course has been somewhat in short supply at Moody’s and S&P, though there’s no word on where they stand on the “course of epoch.”
Meanwhile Dagong, which says it “pays more attention to the different economic stage of each country, and examines the features of its credit risks in a holistic and systematic view,” is looking for an upgrade of its own.
Dagong has applied to the Securities and Exchange Commission to register as a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization, or NRSRO, but the SEC hasn’t approved the application. An order issued this spring set a deadline this month for a hearing.
Among other things, the SEC noted that “Dagong has no physical presence in the United States, does not rate any U.S. companies, and has no U.S. persons subscribing to its ratings.” The SEC order said the commission expects to make a ruling by next Thursday.
Update 2:30 p.m.: Dagong’s lawyer in the SEC case says additional procedural extension have pushed the agency’s deadline to act to Sept. 23.
