• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO

1

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year

2

Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster

3

Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO

A better way to measure jobs

By
Heidi N. Moore
Heidi N. Moore
Down Arrow Button Icon
By
Heidi N. Moore
Heidi N. Moore
Down Arrow Button Icon
July 2, 2010, 1:31 PM ET
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The employment number is important, but does it tells us what we need to know? Some analysts suggest looking at tax receipts instead.

By Heidi N. Moore, contributor

The feeling has become familiar. The adrenaline pumping, the heart beating hard, the fight-or-flight response set to kick in.

Yes, it is the day for employment numbers. Just to catch up, private-sector jobs grew by 83,000 and total payrolls declined by 125,000. The all-inclusive jobless rate is 16.6%, roughly flat with last month. And 6.8 million have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more, making up 45% of the unemployed.

Every month the drama restarts anew: Will the jobs report indicate a reverse in the recession? Will private-sector jobs reveal the return of corporate confidence? Will this be the month that our current malaise starts to look more like a recovery and less like a double-dip recession?

It’s crucial information to know. Unfortunately, making sense of the job report for the purpose of forecasting economic trends is as difficult and crude a method as the fortunetellers of old who predicted tribal events by reading the entrails of slaughtered animals. It’s messy, and we’re still no wiser as to where we are or what’s coming next.

Almost anything could interfere with the purity of employment numbers, because they are largely collected from applications for unemployment insurance. More Americans are falling out of the government counting as their unemployment benefits run out. And the fact that hiring of temporary Census workers is enough to significantly skew the employment numbers is reason enough to start thinking about other ways to gauge our economic health.

Deutsche Bank’s economic team has a solution: Find out whether people are participating in the economy, forget employment numbers. Check out taxes.

This week, Deutsche’s economic team put in another plug for its long-standing theory that it is more productive to see how much in tax income companies are withholding in order to get a sense of how much money is really swirling in the job market. (It wouldn’t work to track how much in taxes people actually pay, because the data is not regular, and also because 47% of Americans don’t pay federal taxes.) Here’s what the team said:

“We have long emphasized the importance of monitoring withholding tax receipts as a gauge of health in the labor market. This data series is particularly useful because it is timely and not subject to revision, although it does not differentiate whether income trends are due to changes in hiring, wages or hours worked. As a result, tax receipts are more useful as a proxy for household income than employment. In some sense, however, we would argue that the income trend is more important than the hiring trend, because the particular source of the income is less relevant than the fact that it is actually being generated.”

Tax receipts are more of a lagging indicator, but they don’t lag by all that much. In addition, they’re updated daily by the Treasury Department (under “Federal Tax Deposits”) and monthly, so it’s not necessary for investors to spend a week every month shivering in anticipation of numbers releases as we do with the employment figures. Treasury also provides a handy comparison of tax receipts every month between 1980 and 2010.

So what do the tax receipt numbers show? The June numbers aren’t out yet. But some back-of-the-envelope calculations show the picture in 2010 to be sunnier than 2009. May 2010’s tax receipts were fully 25% higher than those of May 2009. The tax receipts for January-May 2010 are 3.9% higher than they were for 2009.

Counting tax receipts won’t make our economic picture perfect. But they are an intriguing statistic to add to the mix.

–Heidi Moore is Sweeping the Street for the two weeks that Colin Barr is on vacation.

About the Author
By Heidi N. Moore
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in

The Supreme Court upholds Fed independence by saving Lisa Cook’s job—and also saves U.S. debt from a crisis
EconomyFederal Reserve
The Supreme Court upholds Fed independence by saving Lisa Cook’s job—and also saves U.S. debt from a crisis
By Jason MaJune 29, 2026
1 hour ago
Seated woman speaking
HealthBrainstorm Tech
‘Cop on your wrist’— Wearables offer tons of data but people are still going to sleep to Netflix and TikTok
By Amanda GerutJune 29, 2026
1 hour ago
alan
LawSupreme Court
Supreme Court to Alan Dershowitz: take a hike with your $300 million defamation suit against CNN
By Lindsay Whitehurst and The Associated PressJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago
acb
PoliticsSupreme Court
One of Trump’s Supreme Court appointees just saved the late mail ballots he hates so much
By Mark Sherman and The Associated PressJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago
Strategy cofounder Michael Saylor sits during a conference and looks out into the crowd.
CryptoBitcoin
Strategy may sell up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin to calm investor jitters
By Camila Grigera NaónJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago
Hyperscalers could end up resembling airlines—plagued by small margins, intense competition, and high expenses, AI skeptic warns 
AIData centers
Hyperscalers could end up resembling airlines—plagued by small margins, intense competition, and high expenses, AI skeptic warns 
By Jason MaJune 29, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
Success
MacKenzie Scott alone accounted for one-third of America's $19.2 billion in megagifts last year
By Sydney LakeJune 25, 2026
4 days ago
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
Success
Philanthropy leader at Warren Buffett and Bill Gates’ Giving Pledge says children of billionaires are pushing them to give their wealth away faster
By Preston ForeJune 27, 2026
2 days ago
Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
Success
Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it's the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
Cristiano Ronaldo is soccer's first-ever billionaire: He went from begging for burgers outside McDonald's to landing a $400 million contract
Success
Cristiano Ronaldo is soccer's first-ever billionaire: He went from begging for burgers outside McDonald's to landing a $400 million contract
By Preston ForeJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
The retired college professor fighting a $313 trespassing ticket in Wisconsin thinks he's part of a national struggle
Environment
The retired college professor fighting a $313 trespassing ticket in Wisconsin thinks he's part of a national struggle
By Catherina GioinoJune 28, 2026
1 day ago
Iran is forcing the U.S. into an escalation trap as a 'shadow war' over the Strait of Hormuz heats up that could kill the tenuous ceasefire
Politics
Iran is forcing the U.S. into an escalation trap as a 'shadow war' over the Strait of Hormuz heats up that could kill the tenuous ceasefire
By Jason MaJune 28, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.