The fourth in a series of previews of Apple’s results for fiscal Q2 2010
Over the past week we’ve sampled analysts’ expectation for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, Mac and iPod sales over the fiscal quarter that ended March 27.
Today we look at the bottom line — revenue and earnings per share — for what should be the company’s best second quarter ever, especially given how depressed the computer market was in the winter of 2009.
This exercise is simpler than in past quarters because Apple revised its accounting procedures in January to report most of its iPhone revenue as it is received, rather than spreading it out over 24 months. That effectively closed the distance between the GAAP and non-GAAP numbers that had caused so many analysts to underestimate Apple’s real performance over the past couple years. (See The day Apple released its iPhone revenue bomb.)
The Street’s consensus, as recorded by Thomson Financial, has Apple’s revenue and earnings up year over year 32.4% and 35.75%, respectively .
The most bullish estimate, submitted by Financial Alchemist’s Turley Muller, an independent with a enviable track record, has revenue up 41.7% and earnings up nearly 57% over the same period. (Even the most bearish, from Think Equity’s Vijay Rakesh, has them up 23.3% and 7.8%, respectively.) See below.
| Analyst, affiliation | Revenue (billions) | EPS | Date of est. |
| Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist | 12.87 | 2.81 | 4/12/10 |
| Robert Paul Leitao, Apple Finance Board | 12.81 | 2.80 | 4/12/10 |
| Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein Research | 12.60 | 2.59 | 4/14/10 |
| Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital | 12.60 | 2.53 | 4/16/10 |
| Daniel Tello, Deagol’s AAPL Model | 12.59 | 2.77 | 4/12/10 |
| Patrick Smellie, Apple Finance Board | 12.52 | 2.77 | 4/12/10 |
| Ashok Kumar, Rodman & Renshaw | 12.50 | 2.65 | 4/13/10 |
| Ben Reitzes, Barclay’s Capital | 12.43 | 2.48 | 4/8/10 |
| Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer | 12.41 | 2.54 | 4/15/10 |
| Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank | 12.38 | 2.50 | 4/5/10 |
| Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan | 12.32 | 2.53 | 4/12/10 |
| Alexis Cabot, Apple Finance Board | 12.30 | 2.60 | 4/12/10 |
| Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna Financial | 12.28 | 2.54 | 4/8/10 |
| Bill Shope, Credit Suisse | 12.26 | 2.57 | 4/8/10 |
| Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch | 12.20 | 2.55 | 3/5/10 |
| Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray | 12.15 | 2.45 | 4/14/10 |
| Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley | 12.04 | 2.40 | 4/12/10 |
| Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams | 12.00 | 2.42 | 4/9/10 |
| Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech | 11.83 | 2.41 | 4/11/10 |
| Samuel Wilson, JMP Securities | 11.80 | 2.38 | 4/9/10 |
| Keith Bachman, BMO Capital | 11.77 | 2.39 | 3/25/10 |
| Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel | 11.76 | 2.39 | 4/12/10 |
| Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights | 11.70 | 2.28 | 1/21/10 |
| Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan | 11.67 | 2.36 | 4/5/10 |
| Shaw Wu, Kauffman Bros. | 11.57 | 2.31 | 4/9/10 |
| Richard Gardner, Citigroup | 11.40 | 2.39 | 4/12/10 |
| Vijay Rakesh, Think Equity | 11.20 | 1.93 | 4/9/10 |
. . .
We’ll find out whose numbers were closest to the mark next week when Apple reports its Q2 results. Tune in here after the markets close on Tuesday April 20 for our report on Apple’s earnings and coverage of its conference call with analysts, which begins at 5 p.m. EDT (2 p.m. PDT).
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[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]