Munster: 2010 The Year of the Mac

Mac sales, not iPhones or the new tablet, will drive near-term gains says a key Apple analyst

Analyst, AffiliationMacs (millions)Date of est.
Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech3.311/3/10
Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan3.291/4/10
Bill Shope, Credit Suisse3.281/15/10
Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer Equity Res.3.2112/8/09
Ben Reitzes, Barclay’s Capital3.201/7/10
Scott Craig, Merrill Lynch3.201/19/10
Deagol, Deagol’s AAPL Model3.181/3/10
Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel3.1312/28/09
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan3.121/13/10
Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams3.101/3/10
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray3.101/19/10
Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley3.091/3/10
Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist3.001/4/10
Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank2.9611/29/09
Shaw Wu, Kauffman Brothers2.9012/30/09
Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights2.851/4/10
Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna Financial2.791/6/10

Click to enlarge. Sources: Company reports, Apple 2.0 consensus

Throw another 200,000 Macs on the barbie.

Less than a week before Apple’s (AAPL) Q1 2010 earnings report, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster raised his Mac sales estimate Tuesday to 3.1 million from 2.9 million and his price target to $279 from $277.

In a research note entitled “2010 Year of the Mac,” Munster cited NPD Group data for the past three months that show Mac sales up 26% year over year.

“Keep in mind,” writes Munster, “before the economic slowdown began Mac units were up 30-40% y/y on a quarterly basis. While hype surrounding the expected tablet will be focus of Apple long-term strategy, we believe we will see meaningful near-term upside from the Mac business.”

Munster is not the only analyst anticipating a bump in Mac unit sales. Merrill Lynch’s Scott Craig raised his Mac estimate Tuesday to 3.2 million from 2.9 million. Last week, Credit Suisse’s Bill Shope raised his to 3.28 million from 3.02 million, while Morgan Keegan’s Travis McCourt upped his to 3.12 million from 2.88 million.

(McCourt also lowered his iPhone estimate, rather dramatically, from 9.2 million to 7.6 million, anticipating a disappointing Chinese iPhone sales report. Munster is sticking with 9.3 million iPhones and Craig remains “comfortable” with 10 million.)

Below the fold: an updated version of our How many Macs did Apple sell? chart, based on the latest changes.

. . . .

See also:

[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]

Subscribe to Well Adjusted, our newsletter full of simple strategies to work smarter and live better, from the Fortune Well team. Sign up today.