The third in a series of previews of Apple’s results for the first fiscal quarter of 2010
Earlier this week we sampled the Street’s expectations for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone and Mac sales in the fiscal quarter that ended on Dec. 26.
Today we look at the analysts’ Q1 2010 estimates for a product line in transition: from simple MP3 players like the classic iPod to pocket-sized computers like the iPod touch.
Apple doesn’t break down iPod sales by model in its quarterly reports, so we’ve relied on Piper Jaffray’s iPod touch estimates to draw the chart above.
Once again, there is a wide range in unit sales estimates, from a high of 23 million from Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitman to a low of 17.75 million from Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty. (See below the fold.)
| Analyst, Affiliation | iPods (millions) | Date of est. |
| Chris Whitmore, Deutsche Bank | 23.00 | 11/29/09 |
| Shaw Wu, Kauffman Brothers | 22.00 | 12/30/09 |
| Mark Moskowitz, J.P. Morgan | 21.97 | 1/4/10 |
| Ben Reitzes, Barclay’s Capital | 21.60 | 1/7/10 |
| Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan | 21.60 | 1/13/10 |
| Nehal Chokshi, Technology Insights | 20.91 | 1/4/10 |
| Deagol, Apple Finance Board | 20.50 | 1/3/10 |
| Jeff Fidacaro, Susquehanna Financial | 20.50 | 1/6/10 |
| Doug Reid, Thomas Weisel | 20.45 | 12/28/09 |
| Peter Misek, Canaccord Adams | 20.40 | 1/3/10 |
| Yair Reiner, Oppenheimer Equity Res. | 20.35 | 12/8/09 |
| Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray | 20.10 | 1/6/10 |
| Brian Marshall, Broadpoint AmTech | 19.83 | 1/3/10 |
| Turley Muller, Financial Alchemist | 19.00 | 1/4/10 |
| Kathryn Huberty, Morgan Stanley | 17.75 | 1/3/10 |
. . . .
Note: According to Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, the iPod touch’s share may have widened last quarter. He’s estimating unit sales of 9.4 million iPod touches — nearly 47% of total iPod sales. In his model, iPod touch sales exceeded iPhone sales (9.3 million) for the first time in Q1 2010.
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[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]
