It feels odd to be talking about last quarter’s iPhone sales the same day the new crop of iPhones finally made their debut in China.
But last quarter’s iPhones sales are going to be the big news Monday when Apple reports its Q4 2014 earnings. Those earnings won’t include this weekend’s China sales, but they will include two weeks of iPhone 6/6+ pre-orders, nine days of sales in 10 countries and two days of sales in 20 more.
These iPhones have become the fastest-selling iPhones in history,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said Thursday, carefully avoiding any hard numbers. “The first 30 days we have set a new high-water mark for the most orders taken. And I don’t mean by a little. By a lot, a whole lot.”
If orders and sales were as good as he makes them sound, we should hear more about that on Monday.
Meanwhile, we’ve polled some Apple analysts for their Q4 estimates and we’ve heard so far from 30 of them — 21 pros and 9 amateurs. Their iPhone unit sales estimates range from a low of 35 million (from BTIG’s Walter Piecyk) to a high of 40 million (Jefferies’ Peter Misek).
As usual, the amateurs are more bullish, with an average estimate of 38.5 million. But the pros weren’t far behind at 37.5 million. The average estimate, 37.8 million, would represent 12% growth from the same quarter last year.
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We’ll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q4 2014 earnings after the markets close on Monday, Oct. 20.
Below: The individual analyst’s Q4 estimates — pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide‘s Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers
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Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter at @philiped. Read his Apple
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