Data from the European Travel Commission shows that the share of US travelers who are planning a European vacation has dropped from 45% in 2024 to 37% in 2025—the lowest level since 2021, according to a Feb. 3 report published in conjunction with train operator Eurail BV. The findings are based on a survey of 7,087 long-haul travelers from Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea and the US; the questions aimed to discern where people from these key countries intended to travel in the year ahead and why.  

The main factor sinking Americans’ interest in Europe is cost, according to the report. A preference for domestic travel ranked as the second most-common deterrent to European travel, trailing closely behind price. If these responses are a good indicator of Americans’ travel behavior, European tourism boards can expect at least half a million fewer inbound visits over the course of the summer, as data from the Department of Commerce shows that 2.6 million US travelers flew to Europe in July 2024 alone. 

“The decline in US travel sentiment towards Europe reflects broader economic pressures, political uncertainty and evolving consumer preferences,” says Eduardo Santander, chief executive officer at the European Travel Commission, an organization that represents 36 European tourism boards.

It’s not just Americans either. Nearly half of all respondents, regardless of national origin, cited trip costs as a primary concern. While most of them plan to travel long-haul in 2025, just 44% of global travelers said they intend to visit Europe this year, compared to 49% in 2024.

Still, the decline in interest is steepest among US travelers—a warning sign to European hotel operators, who have said that American big spenders have overwhelmingly formed the backbone of their businesses ever since borders reopened post-pandemic. Chinese travelers were the only group surveyed to show a growing appetite for European trips; 61% of them were planning to holiday there in the next 12 months, up from 57% in 2024.

Despite the declines, Santander says Europe still appeals strongly to US travelers, which is why most EU nations saw an increase in US arrivals in 2024 compared to 2019 levels. The key to sustaining that growth will be “enhancing  affordability and flight connectivity,” he says. 

Even the most optimistic reading of the data still implies that 2025 will be a pivot year for the travel industry, both in Europe and beyond. Here are five additional findings from the ETC survey that paint a picture of changes to come.

Winter travel is also taking a hit

In the first quarter of 2025, just 18% of US travelers plan to visit Europe. Not only does this mark a significant year-over-year drop from 28%, but it’s also the lowest recorded figure since ETC started taking annual long-haul travel sentiment surveys in 2015. The authors of the report attributed this largely to the economic uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump administration, causing US consumers to be more cautious. The survey was conducted between December 2-18, 2024. 

Global travel in general is off to a slow start in 2025

Last year, 43% of respondents planned to take a long-haul trip in the first quarter of the year. Now, travelers from all over the world are pulling back. Between now and March, only 36% of respondents are taking an international trip at all—Europe or otherwise. Of the 28% that plan to visit Europe (down 7% from the same time period in 2024), significantly more travelers aim to visit Scandinavia, Austria and Italy, which correlates with an uptick in Alpine ski vacations.

People don’t really want to get off the beaten path, after all

In 2024, record crowds led to large anti-tourism protests everywhere from Venice to Barcelona and the Canary Islands. But overtourism isn’t a major deterrent: Only 5% of surveyed travelers said they’d consider changing their destination due to such concerns. A majority—61%—said they prefer visiting Europe’s big cities and iconic sights over off-the-beaten path locations. Asked whether they would modify their behavior due to overcrowding concerns at major tourism sites, 39% said they’d return at a quieter time of the day if the hordes proved overwhelming; more than a quarter said they’d still want to visit despite crowds and long lines. 

Americans are not the likeliest to splurge

The ETC survey asked respondents to share whether their daily travel budget would typically be less than  €100 ($104) , between €100 and €200, or more than €200 per day. (The figures represent the total amount spent on accommodations, food and other activities.) Overall, 30% of travelers are now budgeting more than €200 per person per day on their trips.

Of the seven surveyed nationalities, Americans are not the most likely to splurge. Only 33% of them said they would spend upwards of €200 per day, compared to 40% of Brazilians. Chinese travelers, who were reputed to be big spenders pre-pandemic, are now most likely to spend a moderate €100 to €200 per day, amid slow economic growth in their home country. Only 29% of them are planning to splurge this year, marking a sharp drop from 78% in 2024. 

Quick trips are back in style 

Travelers are increasingly opting for stays of fewer than seven nights, while long-term stays of 15-21 days show a 5% drop in interest year-over-year. Moreover, 17% of global respondents said that limited paid time off is now impeding their travel plans—making it the second-most commonly cited barrier to long-haul trips after cost. In other words, as flexible work schedules give way to stricter return-to-office policies, the longer trips that became overwhelmingly popular in recent years are now on the decline.