With Bitcoin prices about where they were three months ago, the top cryptocurrency by market cap has traded mostly down or sideways since once again hitting the $70,000 mark about two weeks ago. That approximate 7% decline is likely owing to several factors rather than a single key incident, experts told Fortune.
One reason for the relative stagnation is the plateauing of the 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Interest had ramped up in January after the SEC approved the ETFs, which now contain over $53 billion combined, according to CoinGlass data. However, the bulk of the inflows came during the first two months of trading: By March 13, $55.3 billion of assets had flowed into the funds, meaning they’ve since contracted. Over the past week, net outflows reached $580.6 million.
Another factor denting Bitcoin’s growth is difficult mining conditions. Bitcoin’s meteoric rise had also been propelled by anticipation of the April 19 halving, where the supply of newly minted coins was cut by 50%, dropping from 6.25 to 3.125 per block. As a result, the hashrate—the total computational power being used to mine Bitcoin—has been volatile. After April’s halving, the rate dipped by 11% during the following four weeks, then briefly recovered before dropping back down.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, told Fortune this was “typical” post-halving instability as “miners are struggling to earn profits given the doubling in per-coin cost.” Sigel said this consolidation phase may continue, but ultimately he predicts Bitcoin’s price will be materially higher by the time of the U.S. elections in November. He also noted that Bitcoin’s recent movement is typical for a bull market. While the coin is currently in the shadow of its all-time high, following an all-time high, price corrections as steep as 20% are common, Sigel adds. “An 11% drawdown is no reason to be concerned.”
David Lawant, head of research at FalconX, told Fortune that the recent price dip can also be explained by “relatively weak liquidity.” For instance, Bitcoin’s average daily trading volume in June has fallen to less than half of what it was in March, in both spot and futures markets. But the longer-term stagnation has been caused by macro economic and political uncertainties, he says.
Bitcoin been hovering near the lower end of its range as market participants are “still pondering” where the next price catalyst will come from. Areas of ambiguity that are holding investors back include the path of U.S. monetary policy and the upcoming election. In terms of the former, the Federal Reserve has forecast that interest rates will remain higher for longer, which sits at odds with data that suggests inflation could be cooling. The market is trying to “square” this, Lawant says.
In terms of the election, while both parties have been making attempts to court crypto-oriented voters, former President Donald Trump has been touting himself as the “crypto president,” according to Reuters. Last week, during a meeting with Bitcoin miners at his Mar-a-Lago estate, he vowed to “stop Joe Biden’s crusade to crush crypto.” While a Trump victory would inevitably be bullish for crypto, polls suggest he has just a 1.1% lead over Biden, and the razor-thin battle is creating an uncertain political backdrop, leaving markets to watch and wait.
More broadly, Bitcoin has made a colossal comeback over the past year, gaining more than 150%.
