Vietnam ended 2024 strong, as an export surge caused the country to smash estimates for economic growth, even as incoming President-elect Donald Trump threatens to upend global trade with a sweeping set of new tariffs.
The Southeast Asian economy grew 7.09% in 2024, according to data released by the country’s General Statistics Office on Monday. That smashed the government’s forecast of 6.5% growth for the year, as well as 2023’s growth figure of 5.05%.
Exports, driven by electronics, smartphones, and garments, grew 14.3% in 2024 to reach $405.5 billion, and that helped drive Vietnam’s growth.
Vietnam’s government hopes to have an even better 2025, with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh recently expressing hope that the economy will grow by 8% this year.
The Southeast Asian country has benefited from shifting supply chains and geopolitical friction. Vietnam is now a “reshoring” destination for companies moving manufacturing away from China to get away from possible tariffs and lower the risk of supply-chain disruptions. Foreign direct investment into the country has surged in recent years, helping grow the export-driven manufacturing sector.
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In December, the Asian Development Bank revised its growth projection for 2025 upward to 6.4%, crediting a “robust rebound” in manufacturing exports and trade.
Vietnam’s strong 2024 means it may have shaken off headwinds from 2023, when a weak global economy and an anti-corruption drive dragged down growth.
Trump risks
But analysts worry that Vietnam’s economy is dangerously exposed to the U.S., particularly as Donald Trump returns to the White House later this month.
Vietnam has the third-largest trade surplus with the U.S., after China and Mexico, which could put the Southeast Asian country at risk of tariffs from a president obsessed with bilateral trade flows.
On Sunday, Goldman Sachs suggested that there is a “significant risk” that Vietnam suffers a “material increase in the U.S. tariff rate.”
In December, Sheana Yue, an economist with Oxford Economics, predicted Vietnam will be the only Southeast Asian economy that will get higher tariffs from the Trump administration. She noted that Trump wants to protect sectors like manufacturing, electronics, and metals, all sources of strength for Vietnam’s economy.
“Increasing protectionism and trade barriers will worsen trade tensions and disrupt the global supply chain,” Nguyen Thu Oanh, head of the price statistics department for the General Statistics Office, said during a Monday briefing.