• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Current price of oil as of June 16, 2026

2

Team USA star Ricardo Pepi grew up in a trailer in El Paso—and his parents pawned their car title to fuel his soccer dream. Now, he’s in the World Cup

3

Cursor’s 25-year-old CEO is a former Google intern who just cemented a $60 billion deal with SpaceX

1

Current price of oil as of June 16, 2026

2

Team USA star Ricardo Pepi grew up in a trailer in El Paso—and his parents pawned their car title to fuel his soccer dream. Now, he’s in the World Cup

3

Cursor’s 25-year-old CEO is a former Google intern who just cemented a $60 billion deal with SpaceX
FinanceJapan
Asia

Why Japan’s stock market is breaking 35-year records even as its economy falls into recession: Welcome to the investing world of ‘not that bad’

Nicholas Gordon
By
Nicholas Gordon
Nicholas Gordon
Asia Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
Nicholas Gordon
By
Nicholas Gordon
Nicholas Gordon
Asia Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
February 23, 2024, 5:30 PM ET
Japan's stock market
Former manager of Japan’s national baseball team Hideki Kuriyama hits the bell during a ceremony to mark the close of the end-of-year trading session at the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Dec. 29, 2023. Philiip Fong—AFP/Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

The stock market is not the economy—just look at what’s happening in Japan. 

Japan’s equity markets broke a record on Thursday, when the Nikkei 225 closed at 39,098.68. It’s not just an all-time high, but an important psychological threshold: The original record was set all the way back on Dec. 29, 1989, near the peak of the country’s bubble economy. 

Japan’s market crashed soon after, dropping by 60% in just a few years. The economy went into an extended slump, leading to what’s been termed the “Lost Decade” as the country’s growth lagged other developed economies, a phenomenon that even became known as “Japanification.” 

Yet despite the recent bull run in Japan’s markets, the country’s other economic data doesn’t look quite so rosy. Japan slipped into a technical recession last quarter, after its economy shrank by 0.4% at an annualized rate, which means that it had two straight quarters of declining GDP, regardless of whether economists officially dub it a recession. It also slipped a spot in the global GDP rankings, falling into fourth place behind Germany in dollar terms. 

The country faces an array of economic challenges. A weak yen is making Japanese imports more expensive, hurting Japanese consumers and companies that rely on foreign energy, food, and other goods. Japan’s population has also shrunk for 14 years straight, reporting its steepest decline last year. 

But investors don’t seem to care, as strong earnings and a revived focus on corporate governance are encouraging foreign investors like Warren Buffett to pile funds into the Japanese markets. Fortune looked under the hood at the Japanese version of the split between Wall Street and Main Street and found that “not that bad” can be very good indeed. A developed economy like Japan’s isn’t going to always grow like crazy, and that‘s more than okay.

Why are Japan’s markets doing so well?

Japan’s return to record highs is really making up for lost time “after a long, quite lethargic performance,” Louis Kuijs, the chief Asia-Pacific economist for S&P Global Ratings, said to Fortune last week. 

Last month, Toyota Motor set a record for the highest market valuation for a Japanese company when it reached a valuation of 48.7 trillion yen ($323.5 billion), surpassing the record set by Japanese telecom company NTT back in 1987. 

Toyota is worth 57.5 trillion yen, or $381.6 billion, today. NTT, by comparison, is worth just 16.4 trillion yen ($108.6 billion).

Foreign investors keep on pumping money into the Japanese stock market, injecting a net $14 billion in January alone, according to the New York Times, citing Japan Exchange Group. 

One reason for investor optimism over Japan is a stronger corporate sector. Earnings for the last quarter of 2023 were 45% higher year on year, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. That’s partly due to the weak yen, which makes Japanese exports from companies like Toyota cheaper overseas. 

Japanese markets are also pushing the country’s sprawling conglomerates, known as keiretsu, to streamline their complicated organizational structure. 

“Anyone who has seen a typical keiretsu corporate structure will understand—it looks like a bowl of ramen noodles,” Herald van der Linde, HSBC’s chief Asia equity strategist, wrote in late January. “These complex corporate structures often come with extra seasonings—weak return on capital, low payouts, and fewer share buybacks.”

That lack of dynamism is reflected on Fortune’s Global 500 list, which ranks the largest companies in the world by revenue. Japan’s presence on the list, which has shrunk significantly since the ranking’s inception in 1995, does not include the country’s version of Meta, Tesla, or Alibaba. The most recent Japanese company to join the list, Toyota Tsusho, has been a Global 500 company for 15 years, just under half the list’s existence. 

But that’s changing. “Dynamism is returning to the Japanese economy,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a research note earlier this week. “Corporates are witnessing record profits and changing their pricing behavior, as well as innovating new strategies to grow,” they continue.

Tokyo’s stock exchange is also doing its part. Last year, the exchange asked companies to do more to improve profitability and valuations, and started to scrutinize the close relationships between parent companies, subsidiaries, and other cross-holdings.

In January, Tokyo’s exchange said it would start listing companies that disclosed plans to improve capital efficiency in a “name and shame” strategy. The exchange has also proposed that companies that don’t shape up could be delisted by 2026.

What about Japan’s economy?

But while the corporate sector looks optimistic, other parts of Japan’s economy look shakier. Private consumption dropped by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2023, compared with the previous quarter. Business investment also dropped by 0.1% over the same period. 

Japan’s shrinking population also poses a major economic challenge in the long term. The country’s median age is 49.1 years, compared with 38.1 in the U.S. Japan will soon need to rely on a smaller number of working-age people to support a growing elderly population. Tokyo has deemed the issue “a challenge that cannot be postponed,” but current policies have yet to reverse the decline. 

Yet economists are cautiously optimistic that Japan might be able to reverse long-running deflation—and become more of a normal economy again. Analysts point to rising wages amid a tighter labor market, with major companies like Toyota, Nintendo, and Uniqlo owner Fast Retailing hiking pay last year. 

Many economists, before Japan released preliminary economic data last week, expected that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates in April—the first hike since 2007. 

The surprise recession might affect that schedule. “The recent GDP growth numbers are definitely a bit of a setback for the prospect of interest rates going up,” Kuijs suggested. 

Yet “if things work well, we could be on a path towards more sustained wage growth in the labor market, underpinning more normal inflation and therefore a more normalized monetary policy,” he continued.

The economist also noted that, for all the negative headlines on Japan over the past few decades, its economic data is “not that bad,” pointing to real GDP growth per capita and productivity per working hour per person in particular. And, in the end, observers should be realistic about what a mature economy can do.

“Don’t expect much more than 1% real GDP growth in the long run,” Kuijs said.

About the Author
Nicholas Gordon
By Nicholas GordonAsia Editor
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon

Nicholas Gordon is an Asia editor based in Hong Kong, where he helps to drive Fortune’s coverage of Asian business and economics news.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Current price of oil as of June 17, 2026
Personal FinanceOil
Current price of oil as of June 17, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 17, 2026
2 minutes ago
Abhinav Agarwal and Jenny Duan
Startups & VentureBiotech
Exclusive: A 21-year-old Stanford grad just raised $11 million to put a hormone lab on your wrist
By Lily Mae LazarusJune 17, 2026
2 minutes ago
Karta founders Orlando Espinoza and Freddy Juez smile at the camera while holding up Karta cards.
Startups & VentureCompanies
Exclusive: Karta raises $15 million to bring WhatsApp-run U.S. credit cards to global travelers
By Camila Grigera NaónJune 17, 2026
2 minutes ago
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Personal Financesilver
Current price of silver as of Wednesday, June 17, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 17, 2026
13 minutes ago
An executive team together in a conference meeting room in contemporary modern office.
NewslettersCFO Daily
CFO pay surged 8% last year—and long-term incentives now account for 63% of the average package
By Sheryl EstradaJune 17, 2026
1 hour ago
Michael Burry attends the "The Big Short" New York premiere at Ziegfeld Theater on November 23, 2015 in New York City.
InvestingMichael Burry
Michael Burry is ‘tempted’ to short Elon Musk’s SpaceX, but says it’s not enticing enough for ‘fundamentally a small space company’
By Eleanor PringleJune 17, 2026
2 hours ago

Most Popular

Current price of oil as of June 16, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 16, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 16, 2026
1 day ago
Team USA star Ricardo Pepi grew up in a trailer in El Paso—and his parents pawned their car title to fuel his soccer dream. Now, he’s in the World Cup
Success
Team USA star Ricardo Pepi grew up in a trailer in El Paso—and his parents pawned their car title to fuel his soccer dream. Now, he’s in the World Cup
By Preston ForeJune 15, 2026
2 days ago
Cursor’s 25-year-old CEO is a former Google intern who just cemented a $60 billion deal with SpaceX
AI
Cursor’s 25-year-old CEO is a former Google intern who just cemented a $60 billion deal with SpaceX
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJune 16, 2026
24 hours ago
'Work hard, stay loyal, and the system will reward you': the Boomer credo is a Gen X betrayal and a Millennial pipe dream
Success
'Work hard, stay loyal, and the system will reward you': the Boomer credo is a Gen X betrayal and a Millennial pipe dream
By Nick LichtenbergJune 16, 2026
1 day ago
Hundreds of Stanford students walked out of their grad ceremony to protest Google CEO’s commencement speech. It wasn’t all about AI
Big Tech
Hundreds of Stanford students walked out of their grad ceremony to protest Google CEO’s commencement speech. It wasn’t all about AI
By Tristan BoveJune 15, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 15, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 15, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 15, 2026
2 days ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.