- Veteran investment experts at Bridgewater Associates say the current economic outlook imperils the existing global hierarchy. In a newsletter obtained by Quartz, the executives criticized the Trump administration’s shift to mercantilism and its “exceptional risks.” The assessment stands in stark contrast to November, when one of Bridgewater’s executives recommended investing in U.S. stocks under Trump.
Chief investment officers at the hedge fund Ray Dalio founded, Bridgewater Associates, warned in its latest newsletter of an upheaval of the “existing world order” amid the fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have ripped through the stock market and left investors worried about a potential recession. In Bridgewater Associates’ latest newsletter, obtained by Fortune, co-CIOs Bob Prince, Greg Jensen, and Karen Karniol-Tambour emphasized “exceptional risks” to U.S. assets as the Trump administration prioritizes a “rapid shift to mercantilism.”
“We expect a policy-induced slowdown, with the rising probability of a recession,” the three wrote.
While JPMorgan predicts a 60% probability the U.S. enters a recession, the Bridgewater co-CIOs think the impact will go beyond just a recession and impact the economic hierarchy.
“To state the obvious: We are facing a radically different economic and market environment that threatens the existing world order and monetary systems,” Prince, Jensen, and Karniol-Tambour wrote. “We have been through many big economic shifts over Bridgewater’s 50-year history, so we don’t speak lightly when we say this looks like a once-in-a-generation one.”
The sentiment is different from Karniol-Tambour’s announcement at a Yahoo Finance Invest event in November where she said that holding U.S. stocks was a “good thing” under Trump.
Historically, U.S. assets are reliant on foreign inflows, and a “shift in asset allocations has created risks if the future is different than the past,” according to the newsletter. The hedge fund outlined portfolio vulnerabilities that include “any weakness in growth,” “central banks not being able to ease into problems,” “equity underperformance,” and “U.S. underperformance relative to the rest of the world.”
At its core, a new geopolitical and macroeconomic standard will create an acute threat to investment portfolios amid a “once-in-a-generation technological disruption,” the newsletter said.
“Facing a new reality, everyone must adapt,” they wrote. “Those who adapt fast and well will gain at the expense of those who adapt slowly and poorly.”
The White House did not return Fortune’s request for comment.
