The world has seen plenty of scary cybersecurity threats in recent years, but nothing quite like what emerged last week. The new threat came in the form of a document drop from OpenAI that The Economist proclaimed to be “judgment day for mathematics” and others simply dubbed “The Mathpocalypse.” This isn’t just idle media chatter. In the view of a prominent cybersecurity expert at Johns Hopkins, “We might lose public key cryptography.” Hoo boy.
So what exactly is going on? It’s helpful to know that the OpenAI documents in question don’t describe a scary new way to hack global computers. Instead, they reveal the solution to hundreds of math problems that top mathematicians have struggled for decades to solve. And contrary to some reports, the OpenAI math dump isn’t going to accelerate the arrival of so-called “Q-day” when quantum computing cracks popular encryption algorithms.
The real reason the OpenAI documents have sparked an uproar is that they signify the arrival of a new species of mathematical super-genius—one that may be capable of finding flaws in the algorithms we use to encrypt banking passwords, email accounts, and the rest of our digital lives. These algorithms have been part of daily life for years, and have long been regarded as sound by top cryptographers. They may hold up for years to come. But if there are flaws in these algorithms, it’s a matter of time before someone uses powerful new AI math tools to find them—and potentially wreak havoc with the world’s financial system.
Predictably, it is the crypto community—who are paranoid at the best of times—who have been at the forefront of the debate over how to respond to the “Mathpocalypse.” Citing the possibility that the so-called ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) protocol could soon be cracked, one Bitcoin researcher suggested crypto holders “calmly begin planning for ‘bunker mode'” by moving their funds to secret new addresses.
Other crypto experts have replied that such a move is too drastic for now, but the impulse to freak out is understandable. While the “Mathpocalypse” threatens banks and financial institutions of all sorts, most of those companies would be in position to reverse transactions carried out by an AI-powered hacker. That’s not the case, though, in the crypto world, where blockchain transactions are deemed irreversible—which is likely to make popular currencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum prime targets.
It’s also notable that, if an AI supervillain does discover a flaw in the algorithms that secure blockchains, we’re unlikely to find out right away. As TBPN noted, there is a game theory element at play: If a bad guy possesses a killer hack, they would be foolish to carry out a massive heist since doing so would likely destroy the value of the crypto. The right play would be not to steal all the Bitcoin, but to conduct a series of smaller and more subtle robberies to avoid showing their hand.
So what happens now? For starters, it’s encouraging that news of the Mathpocalypse created barely a ripple in the market—a signal that crypto and financial leaders have at least some time to figure out what to do next. One of the more intriguing ideas so far—aside from hiding your Bitcoin and heading to a bunker—comes via Dragonfly’s Haseeb Qureshi, who published a blog post titled “Against Cryptographic Doomerism.” In it, Qureshi posits that there is a 95% chance that “everything is totally fine” but says it’s imperative that blockchains up their governance game and, for now, prioritize speed over decentralized purity. He goes on to call for blockchains to introduce updates mandating a signature system that will leave a clunky copy of everyone’s transactions, ensuring a chain can survive a wipeout at the hands of some AI dark lord.
I have no idea if this would work—or even if it’s a good idea. But I do like the spur to action and the lively debate taking place about how to harden our encryption systems against powerful AI-driven attacks. This is crypto at its best: Smart people operating at the cutting edge of technology looking to solve hard problems. Don’t be surprised if the broader financial world, once it comes to recognize the threat, looks to the blockchain sector for ideas to handle it.
Jeff John Roberts
jeff.roberts@fortune.com
@jeffjohnroberts
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