Population levels across the world have reached a tipping point: The U.S. Census Bureau reported that in 2025, for the first time in human history, the share of adults age 65 and over outnumbered the share of children aged 5 and under.
Declining birth rates and an aging population present unique problems for individuals and governments: For individuals, it comes down to financing a longer life and potentially moving milestones as a result. For policymakers, it means budgeting services over a longer period, with demand levels increasing in the coming decades.
But despite policymakers and private-market voices raising the alarm over U.S. demographics, the U.S. will actually become relatively younger than the rest of the world over the next few decades.
The Census Bureau, in a report published last week, found that in 2025, the United States ranked as the 48th-oldest country out of 227 countries. By 2060, the U.S. will fall to 110th place because other regions are aging more rapidly.
In 2025, Japan had the world’s oldest population, with 29.7% aged 65 and older. This was followed by Germany and Greece, at approximately 25%.
However, come 2060, Japan will drop to the third-oldest country, with South Korea projected to see 41% of its population above the age of 65. This will be followed by Taiwan at approximately 40%.
While Europe is expected to remain the world’s oldest region (the percent of its population aged 65 and over is projected to increase from 21.% to 30.8% between 2025 and 2060), the report adds that in the same period, 160 countries—mostly in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean—have populations aged 85 and over which are expected to quadruple.
However, just because U.S. policymakers won’t have to adjust to population shifts as rapidly as other nations, that doesn’t mean it won’t have to wrangle with associated macroeconomic factors—budgeting and productivity, for example.
More years doesn’t mean healthier years
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, for example, has suggested that America could rethink its retirement age to preserve programs like Social Security for younger generations. Moreover, if people could be broadly expected to work a year or so longer, then the labor force would be relatively larger than expected—and therefore produce more during that period.
Yet for the U.S. in particular, there’s a problem. Just because people are living longer doesn’t mean they’re necessarily getting more “healthy” years—years which could be spent more comfortably continuing to work.
The Census Bureau reports that in the U.S., the proportion of years lived in full health after the age of 60 has actually decreased, down 2 percentage points between 2000 and 2019. That figure was slightly higher for men than for women.
The report also highlights that between 2016 and 2019, 73% of adults over the age of 65 lived with two or more chronic health issues, and were more likely to have mobility issues earlier on. In 2018, for example, around 60% of U.S. adults reported mobility problems, compared with 30% of the same age group living in Switzerland.
Macroeconomic shifts arising from an older population are already evident in the U.S. economy. Jobs in health and social care have been a key driver of employment growth over the past 12 months, adding an average of 32,000 roles per month.