Trade representative Jamieson Greer, at the direction of President Trump, announced yesterday that the U.S. would be imposing tariffs on 60 nations claiming they are producing goods using forced labor.
The new tariffs, enforced under Section 301 of the Trade Act, will levy between 10% and 12.5% on imports from certain countries, with the likes of Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom facing the lower rate, while products from Japan, the European Union, and Korea will be capped at 12.5%.
These tariffs will replace the temporary measures brought in after the Supreme Court ruled in February that President Trump could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to enforce duties on trading partners—the administration was ordered to pay back the revenues generated, some $175 billion according to estimates.
The White House had previously suggested that tariff revenues, among other things, would contribute toward rebalancing the nation’s budget deficit and may even contribute to paying down the country’s $39 trillion national debt.
With deficit reduction on the line, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) has been crunching the numbers on Trump’s latest tariff plan, and has found it’s still coming up short.
In a note shared with Fortune, the CRFB wrote that between the tariffs announced yesterday, as well as a 50% levy imposed on Canada on Monday and 25% tariffs on certain goods from Brazil announced last week, the U.S. stands to generate $950 billion by 2036.
However, the committee notes, “while the targeted economies comprise the vast majority of our imports by dollar value, the tariff rates are substantially less than the originally announced reciprocal tariffs on” Liberation Day—April 2 last year, when President Trump used a now-famous display board to illustrate the tariffs enforced on every country on the planet.
The committee’s numbers suggest that the revenues lost due to the Supreme Court ruling total $1.7 trillion over the next decade, while changes to steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs represent a $100 billion revenue shortfall compared to the early plans of the second Trump administration.
The total impact of tariffs since January 2025—compared with budgetary expectations—has been a shortfall of $825 billion.
“While the tariffs will generate significant revenue, they cover less than 60% of the revenue projected under IEEPA authority,” the committee writes. “We currently estimate that the tariffs enacted and proposed under this administration since January 2025 will generate about $825 billion less revenue through FY 2036 than estimated in [the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO)] February 2026 baseline, bringing debt to 122% of GDP by 2036 instead of 120% of GDP under CBO’s baseline.”
Tariff longevity
The administration’s tariff proposals have had continuity problems since they were enacted: Some tariffs were struck down, measures enacted in February were only temporary, and then ruled illegal by the U.S. Court of International Trade in May, pending appeal.
The latest round of tariffs has more staying power: The CRFB points out that the forced labor tariffs may remain in effect until the government deems them no longer necessary to address unfair trade practices. Likewise, the tariffs imposed on Canada can be maintained indefinitely.
While these measures could still face legal challenges, President Trump has been clear in his intention for the revenues. “The purpose of what I’m doing is primarily to pay down debt, which will happen in very large quantity,” Trump told the media last summer.
The Oval Office will need to come up with some more cash to do so, the CRFB warns: “These actions will generate significant revenue but not fully offset the Supreme Court’s ruling against IEEPA tariffs in February. Fully replacing that revenue would require additional tariffs, other revenue increases, spending reductions, or some combination of the three.”