It hasn’t worked out that way. With a little more than three months to go, both parties are grappling with self-inflicted wounds and messy missteps that have complicated their paths to victory in key races.

Trump steered the country into a war against Iran with no end in sight, disrupting the global flow of oil and spiking prices at the pump. He remains fixated on purging his party of dissent and relitigating his election defeat six years ago.

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are in the throes of an internal civil war between moderates and progressives, as democratic socialists successfully oust incumbents. Some candidates have imploded in spectacular fashion, jeopardizing races the party had expected to win.

The drama has turned existential as each party faces a moment of reckoning. Democrats remain shaken by Trump being elected again and are desperately searching for a path back to power. Republicans are beginning to contemplate a post-Trump era even as the president maintains an iron grip on the party.

Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster, said the year has been consumed by “a sense of chaos and confusion.”

“We really do not know what’s going to happen in November,” he said.

Candidates have been rocked by scandal

Democrats’ latest turmoil has unfolded in Wisconsin, one of the most narrowly divided battleground states.

Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez abandoned her bid for governor after a campaign finance scandal just as she seemed to be consolidating support. Now the party establishment is concerned her departure will elevate Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist who’s viewed by party leaders as a potentially weak opponent against U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the likely Republican nominee.

“If we lose, Trump’s most loyal lackey in Congress takes control of Wisconsin, and that’s turned regular Democratic angst into flop sweats,” said longtime Wisconsin liberal activist Scot Ross. Still, he predicted that once the focus moves past the primary fight, Democratic voters would unite behind the party’s candidate.

Then there’s Maine, where the party is eager to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins as part of a nationwide push to regain control of the chamber.

Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and political outsider, rode a wave of grassroots energy to the Democratic nomination, only to drop out after an allegation of sexual assault, which he denies.

Supporters had hoped Platner would be the kind of candidate who could win white working-class voters back to the party, despite controversies including a tattoo widely recognized as a Nazi symbol and a history of inflammatory social media posts. Democrats are holding a convention this weekend to choose a replacement candidate.

Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster and consultant, said activists and voters have been willing to overlook potential vulnerabilities while supporting outsiders for office.

“There is something in the air that has made these candidates incredibly reckless and thinking that they can get away with it,” she said, pointing to the president as a potential explanation. “I think Trump has kind of created a high-risk environment.”

Marc Short, the former chief of staff to Trump’s first-term vice president, Mike Pence, said the dynamic was reminiscent of 2010 when the tea party ushered in a wave of unvetted Republican candidates who famously beat establishment figures in primaries but lost in November, costing Republicans the Senate even as they made gains in the House.

The shoe, he said, is now on the other foot.

“I feel like when there is a lot of energy on one side that you can tend to nominate candidates that create hurdles for you and limit what your gains could be,” he said.

Divisions between Democrats are on display in key races

Other races are forcing Democrats to confront some of their deepest divisions.

In Michigan, Senate candidate and progressive favorite Abdul El-Sayed has worried party leaders like Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer who fear he’s too far left to win in the seat, which Democrats will need to hold onto if they want a shot at winning the majority this year. Supporters point to the enthusiasm he’s garnered as a way forward for the party.

The primary also highlights a schism over Israel. El-Sayed has described Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as a genocide, an accusation rejected by Israel and the White House. In response, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, and its affiliated groups have spent close to $30 million backing primary rival Haley Stevens.

Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, said it’s clear voters across the country are rebelling against a political system they see as rigged and are yearning for candidates willing to fight on their behalf.

He said candidates like El-Sayed would serve as proof of concept going into 2028 that “bold, shake-up-the system economic fighters” are more electable in purple and red states than “stale, status quo corporate-aligned Democrats.”

In Washington, Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., downplayed the idea the ideological divisions would endanger Democrats.

“A healthy party is a party that has arguments,” he said. “I think our party should be debating ideas. We should be having hotly contested primaries.”

Republicans rocked by retirements and ousted incumbents

Republicans are facing their own challenges as they try to buck historical precedent and maintain congressional control.

Trump reshaped this year’s Senate map by sidelining some Republican incumbents and promoting loyalists to replace them. That includes in Texas, where he ousted longtime Sen. John Cornyn and endorsed Ken Paxton, a fiery conservative with a lengthy history of corruption allegations.

Republican leaders had warned his nomination would put the state in play and force the party to spend millions of dollars defending what would have otherwise been a safe seat.

Others chose to leave the party. In North Carolina, Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after feuding with Trump. Democrats hope to flip the seat with former Gov. Roy Cooper.

Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster and strategist, said Trump “has exacerbated the problem” of a political culture that has produced more extreme candidates on both sides of the aisle thanks to closed primaries.

Trump can boost candidates — or hold them back

Republicans have historically struggled when Trump isn’t on the ballot. But he also risks weighing candidates down.

Just 37% of U.S. adults approve of how he’s handling the presidency, according to the most recent AP-NORC poll, which shows deep dissatisfactions over his handling of the economy and other issues.

But instead of staying focused on lowering prices, Trump has continued his bombardment of Iran in a struggle for control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies. He also delivered a primetime address in which he continued to dispute his 2020 loss in an appeal for more restrictive voting laws.

“Trump is our biggest ally,” said Lake, the Democratic pollster and consultant. “He’s the best things that Democrats have going. And it’s the gift that keeps on going.”

But Jenny Beth Martin, chair of the grassroots conservative group Tea Party Patriots Action, disagreed.

“President Trump is the single greatest advantage Republicans have in the midterm elections,” she said in a statement. “The energy and enthusiasm he generates is incomparable, and we’re counting on him to motivate his supporters to go to the polls.”

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Associated Press writers Scott Bauer in Madison, Wis., and Steven Sloan in Washington contributed to this report.