Ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran have begun in Pakistan, but a potential military clash between the two countries is already looming.
On Saturday, U.S. Navy ships navigated through the Strait of Hormuz in a maneuver that wasn’t coordinated with Iran, sources told Axios, marking the first such move since the war started six weeks ago.
The ships crossed the strait into the Persian Gulf, then returned to the Arabian Sea, the report said, with a U.S. official noting the focus was on freedom of navigation.
A statement from U.S. Central Command confirmed that two destroyers transited the strait to begin setting conditions for clearing mines, adding that underwater drones will join the effort.
“Today, we began the process of establishing a new passage, and we will share this safe pathway with the maritime industry soon to encourage the free flow of commerce,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of Central Command.
But Iran declared it a ceasefire violation, and a source told Bloomberg that the Navy destroyers were forced to turn back after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a drone in their direction.
Also on Saturday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is “starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz.” Meanwhile, three oil supertankers transited the narrow waterway, representing the biggest day of oil exits through Hormuz since Iran closed off the choke point through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passed before the war.
Trump halted his war against Iran for two weeks while talks are underway. But the ceasefire remains fragile as hostilities continued, and Iran maintains a tight grip on the strait.
At the same time, the U.S. military continues to send more combat power to the region. A third aircraft carrier as well as thousands of Marines and paratroopers are expected to arrive later this month. More long-range cruise missiles are also flowing to the Middle East.
“I think we’re kind of getting ready for round two,” Rapidan Energy founder Bob McNally told CNBC on Thursday. “But as we work on Iran’s ability to disrupt Hormuz, which we unfortunately started way too late, but we’re doing that now, Iran’s leverage starts to erode. And I think the conditions for a real ceasefire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a full reopening, will be stronger later this month than they are right now.”
He compared weakening Iran’s threats to a game of Whac-a-Mole, listing anti-ship missile launchers, small fast-attack boats, drones, submarines, and long-range artillery.
McNally, who previously served as White House energy advisor to President George W. Bush, also pointed out that the U.S. has reduced Iran’s stockpile of underwater mines that can be used to close the strait.
“It may not be widely reported, but I believe the U.S. military in the last week or so has been focusing on whacking those moles, degrading Iran’s ability,” he added. “You may not perfectly get rid of it, but degrading Iran’s ability to interdict shipping down to a manageable level—and that’s when insurance can come into play and escorts, and folks can start to move through.”
For now, Iran’s missiles and drones are enough to scare ships away, giving Tehran effective control. While a trickle of ships have been allowed to go through, it’s been very selective and a toll of about $2 million is required.
Iran is seeking to formalize this “toll booth” in ceasefire talks, and Trump has even mused that the U.S. could enter into a joint venture with the Islamic republic to extract the transit fees.
But Gulf states that export their oil and gas through Hormuz have signaled they will not tolerate Iranian control of the strait. Meanwhile, Wall Street has warned it would also threaten U.S. dollar dominance in global trade.
In an interview with India’s Times Now on Wednesday, McNally said allowing Iran to rule over the strait would set a dangerous precedent that would encourage similar behavior in other parts of the world.
“It would be a breakdown in global order and trade and stability,” he said. “It’s hard for me to imagine that the United States would end this conflict leaving Iran strengthened and an ability to sort of extort tolls, not only tolls, but other concessions: diplomatic concessions, foreign policy concessions, military concessions.”
