Tax season—and more specifically tax returns—will inject an extra $150 billion into the stock market by the end of March, according to estimates by Wells Fargo. When a “buy” signal like that arrives, the S&P 500 goes up 100% of the time, by an average of 13% over the next six months, according to analyst Ohsung Kwon and his colleagues.
“We expect $150 billion of liquidity injection by March-end, as 64% of tax returns get issued. Additional savings from bigger tax returns (~$820 on average), especially for the high-income consumer (~$9K for the top 1% of earners), will flow back into equities,” the analysts advised clients. “Historically, March has been the strongest month for equity ETF and mutual fund inflows. March and April have also been strong months for the personal savings rate.
“Domestic liquidity is down $105 billion over the past four weeks, since the peak in mid-January, due to tax seasonality. But the seasonality is about to turn positive, at least through March-end, likely triggering a ‘buy’ signal on our Liquidity Indicator.”
March has historically seen the biggest inflows of funds into the markets.
Kwon calls this phenomenon “the Return of YOLO,” because it is coupled with an increase in speculative buying among younger traders on platforms like Robinhood and Schwab. Kwon argues that the proxy for that speculation is the rise in options trading, as opposed to traditional buy-hold-sell retail investor behavior.
“Speculation picks up with bigger savings [and] … ~25% of retail activity is in options now,” he wrote. “Retail investors have become more speculative, especially since COVID. Equity options volume has surged since 2020 and derivative trades now account for about a quarter of popular retail brokerage platforms like Schwab and Robinhood.”
One person who agrees with him is President Trump, who posted on social media last night: “Tax Refunds this year, because of ‘THE GREAT BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL,’ are substantially greater than ever before. In some cases, estimates are that over 20% will be returned to the Taxpayer. So, when you get your Tax Refund, think about what a wonderful President you have—NO TAX ON TIPS, NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY FOR OUR GREAT SENIORS, NO TAX ON OVERTIME, INTEREST DEDUCTIONS ON CAR LOANS, AND MUCH MORE. Don’t spend all of this money in one place!”
Kwon is right about the ebb and flow of liquidity in equities this year. The S&P 500 has been a roller coaster since the beginning of January.
And volatility—as measured by the VIX “fear” index—has trended up all year, too.
Here’s a snapshot of the markets this morning:
- S&P 500 futures were up 0.54% this morning. The index closed flat up 0.10% in its last session.
- The STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.93% in early trading.
- The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 1% in early trading.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 1%.
- China’s CSI 300 is closed for Chinese New Year.
- The South Korea KOSPI is closed for Chinese New Year.
- India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.37%.
- Bitcoin declined to $67.4K.
