While it is a local race, this election has become the latest test of the nation’s political mood nearly a year into President Donald Trump’s second term.

Trump and other big-name Florida Republicans, including Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Rick Scott, have weighed in for the conservative candidate, former city manager Emilio Gonzalez, in the otherwise nonpartisan race. Nationally known Democrats, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, have offered support on behalf of Eileen Higgins, a Democrat who served on the county commission before winning a runoff spot last month.

An upset for the Democrats on Tuesday would give the party an additional burst of momentum heading into a crucial election year when control of Congress will be at stake, especially in a region that has become increasingly friendly turf for Republicans and where Trump plans to build his presidential library.

Higgins, who had represented a district that leans conservative and includes the Cuban enclave of Little Havana, proudly wears the label of “La Gringa,” a term Spanish speakers use for white Americans. A Spanish speaker herself, Higgins has focused her campaign relentlessly on local issues such as the cost of housing while capitalizing on national ones, including the treatment of immigrants under the Trump administration in a city with sizable Hispanic and foreign-born populations.

“I have been a Democrat serving in a primarily Republican district, and all I have done is work for the people,” she told The Associated Press.

Democrats will try to break Republicans’ grip on power

Miami is Florida’s second most populous city, behind Jacksonville, but is the epicenter of the state’s diverse culture and is among the nation’s most prominent international destinations, giving its mayor an outsize platform.

The city of 487,000 is part of Miami-Dade County, which Trump flipped last year, handily defeating Democrat Kamala Harris after losing the county to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. A loss for Gonzalez would be perceived in Florida as a setback for the GOP and Trump.

Christian Ulvert, Higgins’ campaign manager, said early returns of mail ballots are encouraging. About 44% had been cast by registered Democrats as of Thursday, a day before early in-person voting began, compared with about 30% by registered Republicans.

“What you’re seeing is great Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that matches that enthusiasm,” he said.

Higgins, who would be the first non-Hispanic mayor of Miami in almost 30 years if elected, said she is confident she will receive support not only from Democrats, but also from unaffiliated voters and some Republicans because of her work as an elected official.

Her pitch to voters includes finding city-owned land that could be turned into affordable housing and cutting unnecessary spending. She was asked during a recent forum sponsored by the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce if she would try to turn the more ceremonial role of mayor into a full-time job and not take on other work, something that raised ethical concerns for the current mayor, term-limited Francis Suarez.

“I do not have outside employment now. I was a full-time commissioner. I’m going to be a full-time mayor,” Higgins said as the interviewer continued to press her about whether that meant not accepting any outside employment.

In a blunt-talking style, Higgins responded sternly: “All right, do I have to say it more clearly? No! It’s a full-time job.”

Republicans worry as Latino support wavers

While Latino voters nationally have traditionally leaned Democratic, Republicans in Florida have found strong backing among Cuban, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan immigrants, who resist socialist inclinations likened to the ones from the governments they fled. Trump tapped into those sentiments in winning Miami-Dade County last year, a turnaround from his 30 percentage point loss there to Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Yet some Florida Republicans began sounding the alarm after November’s elections, when Democrats secured wins in nationally watched governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia. Both winning candidates had strong performances with nonwhite voters, and the Democratic winner in the New Jersey race received two-thirds of the Hispanic vote, according to the AP Voter Poll.

Those results were largely seen as a reflection of concerns over rising prices and the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration policies.

U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Republican whose district includes the city of Miami, called the elections elsewhere a “wake-up call.” Ileana Garcia, a Florida state senator who in 2016 founded the group Latinas for Trump, has said about immigration arrests that “what we are witnessing is inhumane.”

Gonzalez, a former director of the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services under Republican President George W. Bush, said during a debate sponsored by Miami’s CBS affiliate that he supported immigration arrests against those who committed crimes. But he demurred when the moderator said most of those arrested had not committed violent offenses: “But this is a federal issue,” Gonzalez said. “This is not an issue that has to do with the mayor of Miami.”

Higgins has spoken about Miami’s signing on to a federal program that delegates immigration authority to local police, county sheriffs and state agencies and said she would find legal options to unwind that decision to rebuild trust between residents and law enforcement.

“When we start to enforce whatever shenanigans is coming out of the federal government to just randomly pick people up, we could erode that trust,” she said.

Florida Democrats hope to kickstart their climb back to relevancy

Higgins has received support from Florida Democrats looking to show the party still has a foothold in the formerly swing state.

Some Democrats who could be considering a presidential run in 2028 also are backing her campaign. Buttigieg encouraged voters in a video to make a plan to vote for her, U.S. Sen. Ruben Gallego of Arizona joined her Sunday for early voting stops and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is scheduled to appear at a rally for her Monday.

Many of the local issues at play in the race resonate nationally, including income inequality and one of the nation’s least affordable housing markets.

Gustavo Ascani, a 30-year-old Miami voter, said the city has long-standing problems that need addressing. He said he has not decided whom he will vote for, but said tackling homelessness and traffic is a priority for him.

“Maybe Republicans have overlooked, after having locally been in power for so long, certain issues that are important for the people in Miami,” Ascani said.

Robin Peguero, a former prosecutor who is running for the chance to challenge Salazar for her congressional seat, said voters’ concerns center around affordability, an issue that has become a focal point of both parties after Democrats’ wins in New Jersey and Virginia.

That includes the sharp health insurance premium spikes expected to start Jan. 1 after subsidies under the Affordable Care Act expire. The Obama-era health law remains popular in South Florida, and recent polling shows most people who will be affected by the increases blame Trump and Republicans.

“It’s kitchen table issues, whether it’s an election for local officials or whether there is an election for the president,” Peguero said. “It’s a rejection of what is happening in this country.”