Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday, crypto traders could give thanks that Bitcoin’s price was clawing back major losses. But then Bitcoin plummeted again on Monday following the break. Now bettors on Kalshi, one of the biggest prediction markets, have knocked down its chance of crossing $100,000 by the end of the year—giving it around a 24% chance of hitting that mark compared to 60% at the outset of the holiday.
Kalshi and other prediction market forums like Polymarket and Robinhood are viewed as highly accurate indications for a wide variety of future events, though the odds they post are constantly in flux.
When it comes to crypto, other bets on Kalshi reflect a bearish outlook for the sector. This includes 63% of bettors wagering that Bitcoin will dip below $80,000 this year. Even longer term predictions about the major cryptocurrency are muted, as 82% of bettors predict Bitcoin will not be above $200k by 2027.
Kalshi is one of the major players in prediction markets, along with its rival, Polymarket. Prediction markets gained popularity after the run-up to last year’s U.S. presidential election, when Kalshi pointed to a Trump win in contrast to many highly regarded polls. Since then, Polymarket is seeking a valuation of up to $15 billion, while Kalshi’s is up to $11 billion.
The price of Bitcoin is down about 8% in the last 24 hours to its current price of roughly $84,000, as of Monday afternoon. Since its high of about $126,000 about two months ago, the original cryptocurrency is down roughly 33%.
Ethereum and Solana, the other two major cryptocurrencies, have also had a rough first day of December. Since yesterday, the latter is down about 10% to its current price of $2,752, and the former is down about 9% to its current price of $125.
On Monday, crypto traders in the U.S. woke up to bad news from the other side of the world, as Japan’s 2-year bond yield reached a 17-year high—the latest in a series of macroeconomic signals that have led investors to adopt a risk-off position.
“Developments in Japan added a fresh source of pressure,” said James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. “The prospect of a Japanese rate hike is gathering momentum, and with the country’s substantial government debt load, even modest moves can destabilize global markets.”