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Economy

New China tariffs announced during government shutdown and AI valuation debate are a ‘perfect storm coming together,’ top economist says

By
Nino Paoli
Nino Paoli
Former News Fellow
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By
Nino Paoli
Nino Paoli
Former News Fellow
Down Arrow Button Icon
October 11, 2025, 1:37 PM ET
US President Donald Trump gestures as he walks to Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, on October 10, 2025.
Trump's new China tariffs are expected to raise inflation and put downward pressure on GDP growth.SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images

President Donald Trump’s additional 100% tariff on China erased $2 trillion from the stock market on Friday and possibly couldn’t have come at a worse time.

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A potentially renewed trade war risks a resurgence of uncertainty in the market, Apollo Global Management chief economist Torsten Slok said Saturday on Fox Business, all while fears of an AI bubble raise doubts about stock valuations and the federal government shutdown looks like it may last throughout October.

“This was almost the perfect storm coming together,” he warned.

Meanwhile, White House budget office said Friday that mass firings of federal workers have started and could total more than 4,000.

Slok pointed out that “Liberation Day,” when investors were shocked in April by Trump’s aggressive tariffs, was just over six months ago, and markets have been getting more used to the idea that “maybe the worst was behind us.” 

The Liberation Day announcement wiped out over $6.6 trillion in value from the U.S. stock market within two days. The S&P 500 experienced its largest two-day loss on record.

Now, Trump’s Friday announcement, which includes plans to increase tariffs on China to 130% and impose U.S. software export controls next month, comes as a “surprise,” Slok said on Saturday. The tariff hike threat comes after months of seemingly reduced trade tensions between the countries.

Following Trump’s announcement, the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, its worst day since April 10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 878 points, about 1.9%, and the Nasdaq sank 3.6%.

Tariffs take time for companies to incorporate them, Slok said, but the effects of another wave of tariffs will be on the horizon.

“You should expect the same, namely, higher inflation and also downward pressure on GDP,” Slok said.

The Fortune 500 Innovation Forum will convene Fortune 500 executives, U.S. policy officials, top founders, and thought leaders to help define what’s next for the American economy, Nov. 16-17 in Detroit. Apply here.
About the Author
By Nino PaoliFormer News Fellow

Nino Paoli is a former Dow Jones News Fund news fellow at Fortune.

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