There is a 67% chance that the U.S. federal government shutdown will last longer than 10 days, according to bettors on Polymarket—and for stock traders, that will feel like an eternity. Most notes from Wall Street analysts this morning are bemoaning the lack of official macroeconomic data coming from the U.S.
The U.S. departments of labor and commerce will not publish any data until the shutdown ends. That means, through Oct. 16, at least 12 data releases—including the producer price index (inflation), nonfarm payrolls (jobs), and unemployment—won’t happen.
Without official data to guide them, investors have adopted a split personality approach: risk-on and risk-off at the same time.
S&P 500 futures were up 0.33% this morning, premarket, after the index set a new record on Friday. That suggests traders are highly optimistic, even though they’re in the dark about the health of the underlying economy.
At the same time, gold futures are poised to break through $4,000 per troy ounce in the next few days. The price of gold is up 50% year to date, (it was $3,966.80 this morning on the Comex continuous contract index). Gold is usually regarded as a safe haven asset—suggesting investors are fearful.
Bitcoin went over $125,000 per coin yesterday and is reapproaching that all-time high this morning. Oddly, Wall Street now seems to regard Bitcoin as a “safe” alternative to stocks, akin to gold, even though it is incredibly volatile.
Investors are behaving this way because they are worried that government debt in the U.S., Japan, and Europe is too high, according to Bloomberg, and are thus fleeing to assets that aren’t affected by falling currency prices.
There’s a simpler explanation, Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, told the Financial Times: momentum trading. Gold has gone up so much this year that investors are simply piling onto the runaway train. “It’s gold-plated FOMO,” he said.
Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
- S&P 500 futures were up 0.33% this morning. The index closed up marginally in its last session at a new high of 6,715.79.
- The STOXX Europe 600 was down 0.19% in early trading.
- The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.16% in early trading.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 4.75%.
- China’s CSI 300 was up 0.45%.
- The South Korea KOSPI was up 2.7%.
- India’s Nifty 50 was up 0.66% before the end of the session.
- Bitcoin rose to $123.8K.