Global deal values have topped $1 trillion in a third quarter for only the second time on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, thanks to transactions like Monday’s roughly $55 billion take-private of video game maker Electronic Arts Inc. by a consortium including Silver Lake Management. It means values are now up 27% at around $3 trillion for the year-to-date and on course for their best finish since 2021.

Bankers say the numbers exhibit a continuing release of pent-up demand for transformative M&A among corporate decision makers, who were stifled earlier this year as trade uncertainty emanating from the US roiled markets. But beyond headline-grabbing transactions, actual deal-flow has been flat — a sign that barriers linked to trade and geopolitics remain in place.

“Companies have wanted to be aggressive in M&A but the uncertainty and regulatory environment were real headwinds,” said Tom Miles, global co-head of M&A at Morgan Stanley. “With those factors improved, they are ready to act.”

M&A momentum accelerated throughout the traditionally quieter summer months, a period that brought the biggest tie-up of 2025 so far: Union Pacific Corp.’s agreement to acquire railroad operator Norfolk Southern Corp. for more than $80 billion including debt. There was also Anglo American Plc’s planned purchase of Canada’s Teck Resources Ltd. to create a more than $50 billion mining company.

Big deals emerged in a range of sectors during the third quarter. In technology, Palo Alto Networks Inc. inked a roughly $25 billion takeover of cybersecurity company CyberArk Software Ltd., and in communications, EchoStar Corp. agreed to sell spectrum licenses to AT&T Inc. for about $23 billion. In the consumer space, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. said it will buy coffee and tea supplier JDE Peet’s NV for €15.7 billion ($18.4 billion).

“We’re seeing very little inhibition to analyze and perhaps even carry through with big strategic deals that have been on agendas for a while,” said Dan Mendelow, co-head of investment banking, US, at Evercore Inc. “Companies are anxious to get on with their strategic priorities, including M&A.”

Weaker Deal-Flow

This is proving easier for some than others, with the Bloomberg-compiled data showing that the actual number of transactions announced this year is up less than 0.5% compared with this point 12 months ago. M&A advisers point to a range of persistent challenges for smaller companies, including macroeconomic volatility, political instability and a sluggish rate of interest rate cuts.

“Mid-sized companies take more time to adjust to change, which is restraining the number of smaller flow deals,” said Steve Baronoff, chair of global M&A at Bank of America Corp. “Large corporations are better equipped to navigate tariff uncertainty and have a greater desire to capitalize on favorable regulatory environments.”

Meanwhile, cross-boarder transactions account for 34% of total deal numbers this year, according to the Bloomberg-compiled data. That’s one of the lowest levels for more than a decade.

“In the current political environment, cross border M&A volumes might also be impacted by protectionism,” said Céline Méchain, head of investment banking for France, Belgium and Luxembourg at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. “Most Western governments want to protect their sovereignty, as well as critical technologies.”

PE Pressures

Even before Monday’s monster Electronic Arts buyout — the largest of all time — private equity firms had showed themselves just as willing to write big checks during the third quarter.

Thoma Bravo in August struck its biggest-ever acquisition, buying software company Dayforce Inc. in a $12.3 billion bet on artificial intelligence. There have also been the recent multibillion-dollar buyouts of Spectris Plc, a UK maker of precision and testing equipment and software, by KKR & Co. and energy data platform Enverus by Blackstone Inc.

To be sure, challenges remain on the exit front. While record highs in public stock markets have helped re-open the IPO market, they’ve also been pushing up the price of comparable private assets, making it harder for buyout firms to sell.

“I do not think we will see a tsunami of deals happen next quarter but rather a slow burn upwards in the market for sponsor exits,” said Miles at Morgan Stanley. “Given the number of companies that need to get sold, this should last for the next couple of years.”

Méchain at Goldman Sachs said that the message from private equity investors has been clear: they want money back before committing to new funds. This, she said, would force private equity firms to get creative on the sale of assets. 

“There are close to 1,000 companies worth more than €1 billion valuation with average private equity ownership above six years,” Méchain said. “In this context, LP investors are applying pressure to get some of their capital back before redeploying.”