The price of most organic food could jump this fall because of new policies and tariffs on imported organic sugar, frustrating manufacturers who say the actions won’t help sugar growers but could put some food companies out of business.
More than 90% of organic sugar used by U.S. manufacturers is imported. The price of that product increased in August when the Trump administration imposed steep trade tariffs, and will rise even more when high-tier duties on most organic sugar imports take effect Oct. 1.
The result, according to the Organic Trade Association, is that the price of organic sugar is expected to soar by an average of 30%, increasing costs of producing most organic foods — everything from yogurt to cookies.
The politics of organic food are intersectional, having evolved over the last decade from a largely coastal, liberal-coded foodstuff to a core staple of millennials and Gen Z. In February 2025, food-service researcher Acosta Group found that 59% of all shoppers think it’s important that their groceries or household products are natural or organic, while 89% of Gen Z and 85% of millennials reported shopping for natural and organic products in the last six months.
A preference for organic food also increasingly overlaps with the recommendations of the “Make America Healthy Again,” or MAHA movement, led by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. While the MAHA website does not specifically mention a preference for organic food, it discloses that the Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S. Department of Agriculture will be releasing new dietary guidelines that “promote MAHA priorities to improve nutrition for Americans.”
The word “organic” appears three times in “The MAHA report,” but dedicates over 10 pages to criticism of “ultra-processed foods,” including a criticism of Americans’ poor diet. It argues that the “The American diet has shifted dramatically toward ultra-processed foods (UPFs),
leading to nutrient depletion, increased caloric intake, and exposure to harmful additives. Nearly
70% of children’s calories now come from UPFs, contributing to obesity, diabetes, and other
chronic conditions.”
Each year, the U.S. imports 1,825 tons (1,656 metric tons) of specialty sugar because it is required under a World Trade Organization agreement. But demand for organic sugar far exceeds that amount, so the U.S. Department of Agriculture sets an annual quota for the amount of specialty sugar that can be imported into the U.S. duty-free.
Last year, the quota was 231,485 tons (210,000 metric tons), which still wasn’t enough to meet demand. This year, the USDA’s quota taking effect Oct. 1 will be zero, and all organic sugar imports beyond the WTO minimum will be hit with high out-of-quota duties.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has said its restrictions on specialty sugar imports are intended to help the U.S. sugar industry.
In response to questions about its new policy, the USDA released a statement saying that “the decision was not made to benefit any single entity,” and it would continue to monitor market conditions.
Specialty sugar policy could lead to higher prices
The limits on duty-free imports of specialty sugar plus a new 50% tariff on Brazil, which supplies 40% of the U.S.’ organic sugar, is especially difficult because organic products are already more expensive than their conventional counterparts. Growers must meet more requirements to be certified organic, such as restrictions on pesticides and fertilizers.
U.S. manufacturers say that buying domestic organic sugar isn’t an option because there is only one U.S. farm that produces the specialty crop, and converting a conventional farm to organic takes at least three years.
They warn the combined effect of the tariff and import caps may force them either to raise prices or curb production.
“It’s essentially punishing domestic manufacturers for using an ingredient that we really can’t obtain domestically, and don’t have any prospects of obtaining domestically any time in the near future,” said Britt Lundgren, who oversees government affairs for organic yogurt maker Stonyfield.
Tom Chapman, co-CEO of the Organic Trade Association, said he expects “dramatic impacts.”
“The high tier tariff is so high that we don’t see that it’s an absorbable rate of tariff, in addition to all the other tariffs that would apply,” Chapman said.
Organic food manufacturers will buy most of the imported organic sugar, though some will be offered on grocery shelves, where home bakers likely will see increased prices.
U.S. not producing enough organic sugar to meet demand
Demand for organic sugar had already been outpacing imports for the past several years. But that situation did not spur any new domestic producers, organic food manufacturers said.
In addition to limited production, the U.S. also has limited organic sugar processing because ingredients that are certified organic must be segregated from conventional ingredients when processed.
Whole Earth Brands, a company that sells a variety of sweeteners, is anticipating a 100% increase in organic sugar costs, according to company president Nigel Willerton.
“We supply every major supermarket in the U.S. and natural food stores. We’ll see our prices go up quite considerably. There’s nothing we can avoid there,” he said.
How much prices will change depends on how much sugar is used in the product. For example, sweeteners that are made almost entirely from organic sugar are likely to see bigger price increases than dairy products, where organic sugar is not the main ingredient.
Higher sugar costs may lead some businesses to shut down
Many organic food manufacturers are smaller operations, so they are more sensitive to increases in input costs, Willerton said. Some of them may not have the profit margins to absorb the cost, and they are unable to replace organic sugar substitutes because it would require product reformulation.
“We’ve got lots of small companies involved in this business,” Willerton said. “These small premium companies producing these products are literally going to find themselves priced out of the market.”
The U.S. government has long had a prominent role in sugar production, with policies for setting minimum prices and generous loan programs.
Still, Chapman said he doesn’t understand what the USDA is trying to accomplish with its restrictions.
“When we looked at the USDA announcements, they were talking about domestic sugar shrinking and mills closing,” he said. “There’s only one mill. They were in operation before, and they’re in operation now.”
Florida Crystals Corporation, the only organic sugar producer in the U.S., supplies 8% of the U.S. organic sugar market, up from about 2% a decade ago.
Marianne Martinez, the company’s spokesperson, said the USDA’s new specialty sugar policy “is encouraging and could result in an increase in U.S.-grown and milled organic cane sugar production if it becomes a long-term policy.”
The USDA has not announced any other initiatives to support organic growers in the meantime.
