- Consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, and consumers’ outlook on business conditions and their own income fell to the lowest level in 12 years. The Conference Board says confidence has fallen “well below the threshold…that usually signals a recession ahead.”
The Conference Board released its latest Consumer Confidence Survey on Tuesday, which revealed consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month.
Notably, the Conference Board’s Expectations Index—which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years “and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.”
“Consumers’ expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board, wrote in a statement. “Meanwhile, consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.”
Compared to February, fewer consumers in March expected their incomes to increase—and conversely, more people expected their income to actually decrease going forward. Their outlook for the labor market at large also deteriorated, with fewer people expecting more jobs to be available and more people expecting business conditions to worsen.
“Comments on the current administration and its policies, both positive and negative, dominated consumers’ write-in responses on what is affecting their views of the economy,” the Conference Board said.
March’s big drop in consumer confidence was driven largely by people over 55 years old, followed by those between 35 and 55.
Notably, this pessimism extended to the stock market, where expectations turned negative for the first time since 2023. Markets experienced a massive selloff earlier this month amid tariff uncertainty, which erased all of the S&P 500’s post-election gains.
“In March, only 37.4% expected stock prices to rise over the year ahead—down nearly 10 percentage points from February and 20 percentage points from the high reached in November 2024,” Guichard said. For what it’s worth, what consumers are experiencing appears to match the sentiment on Wall Street, where many economists expecting the Trump administration to pursue “an exceptionally pro-growth agenda” are now feeling distressed amid the heightened risks of a recession.
Consumers are also more worried about inflation than they were in February, remaining particularly “concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs.” The Commerce Department in February said Americans sharply cut back on spending amid concerns about tariffs’ effects on the economy. On Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that inflation will be a self-fulfilling prophecy if businesses start baking consumers’ fears into their own forecasts.
The Conference Board will release its next report on consumer confidence on April 29.
