- The shouting match between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday may spur European countries to take bigger steps to ensure aid keeps flowing to Kyiv as it struggles to fight off Russia’s invasion. Top geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer said an EU seizure of Russia’s frozen assets is now more likely.
European leaders expressed support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after getting in a heated argument with President Donald Trump on Friday, raising speculation on what actions they could take to back up their words.
The diplomatic meltdown in the Oval Office sank hopes for a US-Ukraine mineral deal that could have eased the path for more support and an eventual end to the war. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is reportedly considering a halt to all US military aid.
Before the blowup, some European counties were eyeing a massive pot of money: the roughly $200 billion of Russian assets in the EU that were frozen after Vladimir Putin launched his war on Ukraine three years ago.
Interest from those assets are already being used to back an earlier 50 billion-euro loan to Ukraine. But some leaders are concerned about the legality of an outright seizure of Russia’s currency, gold, and government bonds, which could also raise doubts about the safety of certain assets across global markets.
Now, the prospect of US aid ending soon could overcome lingering resistance.
“european union now more likely to seize russia’s frozen assets, making up for loss of american support for ukraine,” Ian Bremmer, president of political risk research and consulting firm Eurasia Group, posted on X on Friday.
That comes as Europe reckons with a possible future without US leadership, including a trans-Atlantic alliance that has been the bulwark of Washington’s security shield for nearly 80 years.
The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, signaled after the Trump-Zelensky shouting match on Friday that Europe will try to fill the void.
“The free world needs a new leader,” she said. “It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.”
Kallas, a lawyer and a former prime minister of Estonia, has also been a proponent of seizing Russia’s frozen assets. In December, she said Ukraine has a legitimate claim for compensation and suggested the frozen Russian assets would help pay the damage Moscow has inflicted.
On Monday, she said one more EU country had switched from opposing an asset seizure to supporting it without naming the member state, but acknowledged the difficulty of getting unanimous approval.
“This is what I have always said: eventually, especially in the situation where we are right now, we all come to the conclusion that our taxpayers should not be the ones who are paying for this,” Kallas added. “It should come from the country that destroys Ukraine, which is Russia.”
Leaders from Poland, Estonia, and Finland recently added to growing calls for seizure. And on Monday, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala joined in, saying Trump is completely transforming US foreign policy.
But the Eurasia Group’s Bremmer expressed doubts that Europe will step up its support for Ukraine meaningfully.
“Are the Europeans willing to stand up for themselves, for their principles, for their values, and for fellow Europeans? And I fear the answer is no,” he said in a video posted on Saturday. “Analytically, everything we’ve seen for the last three years is that they’re going to talk a really good game and they’re not going to do very much. But we shall see. And we shall see very soon because this is the future of the West. This is the future of democracy. And it sure as hell is the future of the Ukrainians.”
