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Apple is facing a ‘fork in the road year’ on AI, but has one clear advantage, analysts say

Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
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Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
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Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
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Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez
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January 23, 2025, 7:24 PM ET
Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., during the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference at Apple Park campus in Cupertino, California, US, on Monday, June 10, 2024.
Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., during the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference at Apple Park campus in Cupertino, California, US, on Monday, June 10, 2024.David Paul Morris—Bloomberg via Getty Images
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  • Wedbush Securities analysts led by Dan Ives reiterated their “outperform” rating and ambitious price target for Apple stock in part because its billions of iPhone and iOS users give the tech company a leg up in the AI race.

Wedbush Securities analysts, led by Dan Ives, shot back at Apple naysayers, saying fears of a major stock hit are “overdone” because of a clear advantage giving the tech company a leg up in the AI arms race.

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Despite a losing streak in which Apple’s stock fell just under 6% over the last five trading sessions, Ives and Wedbush reiterated their “outperform” rating and an ambitious price target of $325 per share. As of midday trading Thursday, the stock was trading down less than 1% at $223 per share.

Driving the analysts’ longer term optimism was Apple’s one clear advantage over its competitors when it comes to AI: iPhone market dominance. Although Apple Intelligence launched just months ago and is still in development, the analysts foresee about 20% of the world’s population accessing AI through an Apple device “over the coming years.”

“What the bears continue to miss on Apple is its golden installed base of 1.5 billion iPhones and 2.3 billion iOS devices is unmatched and will create a new AI-driven growth story that the Street is not factoring into the stock,” the analysts wrote in a note published Wednesday.

Apple did not immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment. 

Apple Intelligence will serve as the foundation for a new “growth renaissance” at the company, driven by developers building hundreds of new apps using the technology. Those new apps will lead to “billions of incremental services growth,” which includes App Store revenue, over the coming years, the analysts wrote.

Wedbush’s positive outlook comes after Apple reported weaker iPhone sales for the last quarter of 2024 amidst increased domestic competition in its second-biggest market, China. Still, the analysts led by Ives wrote in the Wednesday note the sales decline is “manageable” and balanced out by sales growth in the U.S. and other regions.

Apple Intelligence is being rolled out cautiously, according to Apple higher-ups, and it still falls short in some areas, including with writing and editing assistance, The Wall Street Journal reported. Last week, Apple also paused an AI feature that was incorrectly summarizing headlines from major news outlets such as the BBC. 

While Apple Intelligence is still a work in progress, the analysts painted 2025 as a pivotal year for Cupertino, Calif.-based Apple and CEO Tim Cook to further develop its AI strategy and overcome the hiccups. 

“We believe there will be bumps in the road as Apple heads down the AI path but ultimately 2025 is a fork in the road year for Cook and Cupertino to prove the doubters wrong,” the analysts wrote.

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