Fire insurance has become more costly—if it’s available at all—in California, leading more Golden State homeowners to turn to the FAIR Plan, a government-backed insurer of last resort. But as wildfires have set thousands of homes worth tens of billions of dollars ablaze across Los Angeles, some fear FAIR’s funds will run dry—forcing all California policy holders to make up the shortfall.
Consumer Watchdog, a non-profit group that has previously sounded alarms about FAIR’s solvency, warned last year that California homeowners could be on the hook for a $1,000 to $3,700 surcharge—or possibly even more if a major fire event were to transpire. Under the plan, FAIR can seek a top-up from private insurance companies, which would in turn pass on the charge to customers.
Now the major event that the group feared has occurred. Jamie Court, president of the organization, says those figures are estimates “in the ballpark of what we would all pay.” The actual outcome will depend on the total damages and the current state of the FAIR Plan’s finances.
The numbers underlying Consumer Watchdog’s predictions are grim. The reason the FAIR Plan is in dire straits is because it has so many policyholders in affected areas, including about $6 billion of exposure just in the Pacific Palisades—an upscale community that has burned to the ground—and billions more in other evacuation areas. Meanwhile, it has only around $200 million in cash on hand and $2.5 billion it can tap from reinsurance firms that act as backstops to insurance companies. More and more homeowners have come to rely on FAIR since other private insures have non-renewed policies or increased prices dramatically across the state.
“We are one event away from a large assessment,” Victoria Roach, president of the FAIR Plan, told the California state legislature last year. “There’s no other way to say it, because we don’t have the money on hand [to pay all the claims] and we have a lot of exposure.”
Asked about potential surcharges California homeowners might have to pay in the future, a FAIR Plan spokesperson told Fortune on Saturday, “the FAIR Plan cannot speculate about the future impact of this disaster on California policyholders.”
“The FAIR Plan, primarily a catastrophe insurer, is prepared and actively serving customers who have already made claims,” a spokesperson said in a statement to Fortune. “The FAIR Plan has payment mechanisms in place, including reinsurance, to ensure all covered claims are paid.”
Another complication: There are many questions as to how the fires started. In Altadena, investigators are looking into whether an electrical transmission tower could be a possible source for the start of the Eaton fire. If a utilities company were found liable, the state has a utility wildfire insurance fund that could pay out around $15 billion.
“I don’t think anyone looks at the California insurance market and describes it as a healthy and functioning market,” says Franklin Manchester, principal global insurance advisor at data company SAS. “I think that the FAIR Plan has its limitations, but it is necessary.”
Premiums will rise
The bad news doesn’t end there for California insurance customers as many could also see their premiums rise for other reasons. California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara recently issued a regulation, which goes into effect later this month, that allows reinsurance costs to be passed on to customers in their premiums. Private insurers are supposed to expand their coverage in high-risk areas in return.
Consumer Watchdog estimates home insurance rates could increase by as much as 40% to 50% as a result. The California Department of Insurance did not respond to Fortune‘s request for comment.
Though it will take weeks, at least, to have a grasp on the full devastation of the fires, there’s no doubt in many experts’ minds that the fires mark a significant turning point for California’s insurance market.
Olga Sajkowski’s home in Malibu burned down last week. She and her husband sought out FAIR Plan coverage a year ago after they were dropped by their private insurer, USAA. While she is worried about the insurer’s solvency, she is praying for the best.
“Do I have confidence in California FAIR Plan solvency? No, but it’s all we have right now,” Fortune previously reported. “Our livelihood, our net worth, is wrapped up in that house.”
The FAIR Plan is encouraging affected customers to submit their claims online. They can also call 800-339-4099 if they run into issues.
