It’s hard to overstate just how high the stakes are for CEO Elon Musk, whose company just suffered a historic drop in annual sales.

The midsize crossover is the brand’s bestseller by far. Last year, it accounted for roughly 1.2 million units delivered, or two out of every three cars Tesla sold. Yet the vehicle faces increasing competition as it enters its sixth year in the U.S. market. 

Due out first in China come March, the newer vehicle, code-named “Juniper,” is now available to order on Tesla’s local website.

It touches up some exterior styling cues including headlights that borrow heavily from the Cybercab robotaxi concept, while offering more extensive changes in the passenger cabin. 

The long-range version, better suited for American roads, retails at 303,500 yuan ($41,400) and manages 719 kilometers (447 miles) on one charge under China’s far more forgiving test cycle. The latter represents a slight improvement of 4.5% over the current version.

The U.S. launch date, price in dollars, and EPA-estimated range have not been released, but they are likely to be substantially different if for no other reason than Tesla sources the bulk of its made-in-China vehicles locally.

Tesla did not respond to a Fortune request for comment.

Crucial to 2025 forecast for a minimum 20% growth in sales

A lot is riding on Juniper’s success. No other major global carmaker is so heavily dependent on just one product to drive overall revenue and profits, let alone a company worth more than the rest of its collective peers combined.

Even a moderate drop in demand would have a material effect on Tesla’s business, especially as the EV maker’s launch date for its low-cost entry model is not exactly clear.

Investors hope Juniper will reignite demand enough to keep Tesla factories humming with a minimum of margin-eroding rebates and incentives.

A key reason both production and deliveries sank last year was the belief that Model Y owners were waiting for Juniper’s arrival before submitting their next purchasing order.

“To achieve the envisaged accelerated sales growth in 2025, the new entry model is essential in our view,” UBS said, referring to Musk’s promise to grow volumes by 20% to 30% this year. 

Potential embarrassing reversal by Tesla

Notably, the look differs from that of its sibling, the Model 3 “Highland,” whose front grille and headlights are more minor refinements from the original design.

Juniper’s front features the same single light bar stretching across the hood that first featured on the Cybertruck pickup before it was grafted onto the body of a conventional passenger car with the Cybercab. 

The refreshed Model Y’s rear also includes a light bar borrowed from the robotaxi, but is much fatter in appearance.

Oddly enough, one of the most controversial aspects is the apparent continued presence of an indicator stalk. 

‘We would not see the Model Y facelift as a game changer’

This ubiquitous instrument was replaced when the Y’s sibling, the Model 3 Highland, underwent its design upgrade.

In keeping with Musk’s philosophy that “the best part is no part,” drivers were instead told they would now have to press a button when signaling a turn.

The decision proved highly divisive among the CEO’s otherwise fiercely loyal customer base. 

But indicators are safety-relevant, and stalks are intuitive.

By comparison, signaling buttons can more easily be mixed up while driving.

If Juniper retains a stalk, it would be a rare example of Tesla completely reversing course. 

Whether the changes are sufficient enough to deliver the boost Tesla needs remains unclear. But even as it props up demand from returning customers, it may fail to poach new ones from rival brands.

“For competitors in the segment, we would not see the Model Y facelift as a game changer,” UBS concluded.