- The first month of a new year can signal market performance for the rest of the year, prompting investors to behave like “hyperactive first-graders playing musical chairs,” Sam Stovall, CFRA Research chief investment strategist, told CNBC.
Wall Street is keenly focused on January’s initial trading sessions as the first month of a new year can signal market performance for the rest of the year.
That’s after the Santa Claus rally largely failed to materialize, while 2025 started with a selloff followed by a rebound on Friday.
“I think what you just said indicates that investors are no better than hyperactive first-graders playing musical chairs, always trying to out-anticipate the other as to what’s going to happen right now,” Sam Stovall, CFRA Research chief investment strategist, told CNBC on Friday.
He added that he’s a big believer in Januarys being market indicators for the year ahead, and 2025 features an extra wrinkle because it’s the first year of a new presidential term. President-elect Donald Trump will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, beginning his second stint in the White House.
According to Stovall, when the market is higher in the January of the first year of a presidential term, it ends the year up by more than 18% on average, and notching a gain more than 90% of the time.
“So a pretty good indicator, if we get off on the right foot,” he said on CNBC.
After two straight years of S&P 500 gains that topped 20%, marking the best streak since 1998, traders are cautiously optimistic on 2025.
Analysts see more double-digit gains ahead, albeit less than last year. For his part, Stovall sees the S&P 500 up about 7%, which he described as still good—just not great.
Historically, there’s some reason for concern in a year like 2025. Of the 11 bull markets since World War II that reached the two-year mark, the average gain for the third year was less than 3%, according to Stovall. And of those instances, three of them entered bear markets—meaning a 20% drop from a recent high—and two also saw declines.
Also based on the market’s history since World War II, there’s only a 1-in-5 chance of a third year of double-digit gains after two straight years with advances that big, he said.
Other factors also look poised to slow down the bull market. The Federal Reserve has indicated it won’t trim benchmark rates as much as previously anticipated. That’s as inflation is expected to remain sticky, while Trump’s plans for an immigration crackdown, tariffs, and tax cuts are seen adding upward pressure to prices.
On the other hand, market veteran Ed Yardeni thinks the U.S. is at the start of another “roaring 20s” era. Meanwhile, productivity has been improving amid an AI boom that looks to remain hot, with Microsoft forecasting investment in the sector of $80 billion this fiscal year.
“In many ways, artificial intelligence is the electricity of our age, and the next four years can build a foundation for America’s economic success for the next quarter century,” Microsoft President Brad Smith said on Friday. “The United States is poised to stand at the forefront of this new technology wave, especially if it doubles down on its strengths and effectively partners internationally.”