• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic

1

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock

2

‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion

3

'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
FinanceEconomy

Economists are already worried Trump’s ‘Maganomics’ will hurt growth in 2025

Eleanor Pringle
By
Eleanor Pringle
Eleanor Pringle
Senior Reporter, Economics and Markets
Down Arrow Button Icon
Eleanor Pringle
By
Eleanor Pringle
Eleanor Pringle
Senior Reporter, Economics and Markets
Down Arrow Button Icon
January 2, 2025, 10:44 AM ET
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has some big ideas about the economy in 2025—not everyone is convinced how well they'll work.Eva Marie Uzcategui - Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.
  • Economists asked about their outlook under a Trump regime said they fear rising inflation and slowing growth, but even then, they see America faring better than Europe.

While President-elect Donald Trump might have a spring in his step as he heads toward the White House, economists looking at their 2025 calendar can’t find the same optimism.

More than 200 economists across the U.S. and Europe were questioned about how they feel Uncle Sam will fare under a second Trump presidency.

The research commissioned by the Financial Times and the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business concluded that the majority of experts see Trump’s combative “Maganomics” as ultimately hurting U.S. growth.

Likewise, a significant proportion of respondents see Trump’s policies as potentially inflationary.

The root of many concerns is Trump’s tariff plan. The billionaire entrepreneur proposes an increase of 60% on nations like China and 10% to 20% on the rest of the world.

On the other hand, growth could be spurred by a more free-market approach, coupled with tax cuts, which have the potential to boost consumer spending and confidence.

But overall, of the approximately 50 economists surveyed on the U.S. alone, more than half view Trump’s policies as ultimately having “some negative effect” on the economy, while a further 10% forecast a “large negative effect” on the thus-far surprisingly resilient market.

That being said, even the hand-wringing about the world’s largest economy is preferable to the outlook across the Atlantic.

A separate survey conducted by the FT found that 13% of Eurozone analysts expect their nations to be significantly negatively impacted by Maganomics, while 72% expect some negative repercussions.

What the markets are saying

Economists’ outlook is at odds with that of the Republican voters who backed the former President returning to the Oval Office once more.

A December Gallup survey of more than 2,000 people found that 88% of Republicans expect the stock market to rise and 87% expect inflation to continue at a reasonable rate.

A further 78% predict general economic prosperity, compared to 40% of independent voters and 15% of Democrats.

And while Wall Street veteran Jamie Dimon says bankers are “dancing in the street” at the prospect of a regulation-light administration, the general consensus on the economy is still muted.

As Goldman Sachs’s Ronnie Walker writes in a note seen by Fortune: “The direct impact of higher tariffs on GDP is likely to be modestly negative, with the hit to real income and consumer spending from higher prices outweighing the decline in the trade deficit, especially if other countries retaliate.”

Taking heed of the impact in previous tariff rounds—such as in 2018 and 2019—Walker adds: “Here would also be negative indirect effects, such as the reaction of financial markets, a deterioration in business sentiment, increases in trade policy uncertainty on investment, and supply chain disruptions. These channels are more uncertain and could potentially be larger than the direct effects.

“We estimate that every 1pp increase in the effective tariff rate would reduce the level of GDP by 0.03% through direct effects and as much as 0.1% through indirect effects.”

About the Author
Eleanor Pringle
By Eleanor PringleSenior Reporter, Economics and Markets
LinkedIn icon

Eleanor Pringle is an award-winning senior reporter at Fortune covering news, the economy, and personal finance. Eleanor previously worked as a business correspondent and news editor in regional news in the U.K. She completed her journalism training with the Press Association after earning a degree from the University of East Anglia.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

k
Commentarypower
What I keep hearing from Fortune 500 CEOs: ‘We have no idea what we’re actually paying for power’
By Kiran BhatrajuJuly 21, 2026
18 minutes ago
Jersey Mike's Subs restaurant.
C-SuiteCFO Daily
Jersey Mike’s tests how far investors will stretch on restaurant IPO valuations
By Sheryl EstradaJuly 21, 2026
26 minutes ago
Top CD rates from major banks on July 21, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on July 21, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 21, 2026
1 hour ago
Current price of Bitcoin for July 21, 2026
Personal FinanceCryptocurrency
Current price of Bitcoin for July 21, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 21, 2026
1 hour ago
Current price of Ethereum for July 21, 2026
Personal FinanceEthereum
Current price of Ethereum for July 21, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 21, 2026
1 hour ago
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Economynational debt
Jamie Dimon won’t put more of his own money into the long end of the bond market right now—thanks to the $39 trillion national debt
By Eleanor PringleJuly 21, 2026
1 hour ago

Most Popular

Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
Success
Mark Cuban says he has the solution to growing income inequality, and it's to reward every employee—from CEO to janitor—with company stock
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
18 hours ago
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
Success
‘I want to die broke’: Billionaire philanthropist Denny Sanford dies after giving away $4 billion
By Sydney LakeJuly 20, 2026
22 hours ago
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
AI
'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says we're headed for universal basic income or 'some form of socialism' as AI revolutionizes work—He calls that optimistic
By Jason MaJuly 18, 2026
3 days ago
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 20, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Monday, July 20, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 20, 2026
1 day ago
Warren Buffett says his $147 billion investing career was an accident: ‘I may be one of the 10 luckiest in the world’
Future of Work
Warren Buffett says his $147 billion investing career was an accident: ‘I may be one of the 10 luckiest in the world’
By Sarah GlodekJuly 20, 2026
1 day ago
It’s not just Taco Bell lettuce and possible glass in Pillsbury rolls: Food and drink recall events reached a 6-year year-over-year high
Retail
It’s not just Taco Bell lettuce and possible glass in Pillsbury rolls: Food and drink recall events reached a 6-year year-over-year high
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 20, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.