No tech giant’s stock got off to a tougher start this year than Tesla’s. Now, though, the automaker is set to finish 2024 with a bang thanks to a postelection rally that has propelled Tesla stock to a record high, and led Wall Street analysts to embrace one of the market’s most popular and volatile stocks all over again.
Shares in the electric vehicle giant have risen roughly 70% since Donald Trump’s victory on Nov. 5 and nearly tripled since late April, when they fell below the $140 mark and were down over 40% for the year. The stock rose 6% Wednesday to hit a closing price of $424.77, beating its previous best finish of $409.97 on Nov. 4, 2021.
Musk took a moment to gloat about the milestone with a post on X, the social media platform he owns. On Tuesday, he also quipped that Tesla’s rally would bankrupt Bill Gates, one of the men he’s overtaken to become the richest in the world. The Microsoft founder has drawn Musk’s ire for years owing to his undisclosed short position in the EV maker.
As foretold in the prophecy 🙏 https://t.co/1SaMvlfvpd
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 11, 2024
Tesla bulls roar
Musk’s bluster is a stark reversal from earlier this year, when flagging sales, the result of a broad EV slowdown, as well as increased competition in both the U.S. and abroad, weighed on the stock—and maybe the CEO himself. Shares plunged following Tesla’s Q2 earnings call in July, during which, some analysts said, Musk appeared uneven and defensive.
“Not for the first time, the so-so performance of Elon Musk’s company should make shareholders wonder whether Tesla stock deserves anything like its current massive valuations,” Fortune’s Shawn Tully wrote at the time.
As recently as October, Tesla was overtaken by chipmaker Broadcom in the Magnificent Seven, a movie-inspired moniker for America’s seven largest tech giants by market cap.
Tesla has since regained its spot and is now worth $1.36 trillion, a mere $200 billion or so behind Facebook parent Meta. The company has added over $550 billion in market cap since the election.
Even in the EV market, investors are paying a massive premium for Musk’s company, which is now trading for roughly 130 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, according to estimates from S&P Capital IQ. For comparison, Chinese competitors Li Auto and Berkshire Hathaway–backed BYD both trade for roughly 20 times forward earnings.
The mood among many of the analysts who follow Tesla has also become more bullish. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs have both raised their price targets for the stock to $400, near the high end of the Street’s estimates. It’s worth noting, however, that the consensus price target from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg falls short of the $270 mark, suggesting a 37% downside based on the stock’s price at close Wednesday.
Much of the upside seen by Tesla bulls is based on a belief that the company will execute on Musk’s goals surrounding autonomous driving and advancements in AI. After Trump’s victory, those convictions have been bolstered by Musk’s influence, real or perceived, inside the incoming administration.
Trump’s transition team is reportedly planning to develop a federal regulatory framework for autonomous vehicles, which would presumably streamline the current state-by-state process Musk has called “incredibly painful.”
Trump has pledged to get rid of the EV tax credit, a huge incentive for buyers and a major boost to Tesla’s profits. Many of the company’s bulls, however, claim this will help the market leader reestablish its dominance in the industry.
Whether that means the company fulfills the promise of its lofty valuation remains to be seen.
