Thanks to a stock price that’s soaring in the final days before the election, the market cap of the Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) now exceeds that of X, which owner Elon Musk took private in October 2022. In late September, TMTG’s stock sat at an all-time low of $12.15. Since then, the stock’s price rose 345% as Trump’s political chances improved. 

Now, TMTG has a market cap of roughly $10.8 billion compared to X’s estimated value of $9.4 billion. X’s market cap was calculated based on the value of Fidelity’s investment cited in disclosure forms filed in September. 

Much of the trading on TMTG has been divorced from its financial performance; instead, it appears that shares of TMTG rise and fall with the Trump campaign’s political outlook. The disconnect between share price and business performance has led TMTG to be called a meme stock. In fact, TMTG’s finances have been mired by hundreds of millions in losses and negligible top-line revenue. In the second quarter of this year, revenue amounted to just $837,000. Through the first half of 2024, the company posted $344 million in losses.  

TMTG doesn’t report any user metrics, so it’s difficult to know exactly how many people are on Truth Social, but earlier this year, the company’s daily active users plunged to just around 76,000, according to data from Similarweb. X, meanwhile, has hundreds of millions of users, at least 250 million a day, according to a March tally. That said, its exact numbers are also difficult to pin down because X is no longer a publicly listed company. 

The close of the election brought on a flurry of trading activity for TMTG stock. In mid-October, the stock had its two biggest trading weeks, ever with 472 million shares changing hands during that time. Many of the buyers appear to be momentum traders eager to hop on the stock’s tear and cash in on it for themselves. While certainly a legitimate reason to purchase any security, it’s not exactly a testament of faith in the underlying fundamentals of the company itself. 

Trump and Musk, the owners of Truth Social and X, respectively, may be social media rivals in the tech world, but they are very much allies in the political arena. Musk has been a vociferous supporter of Trump throughout the campaign, appearing with him regularly, praising his courage following the two assassination attempts against him, and saying the U.S. is “doomed” should Trump lose. 

TMTG’s stock rise coincided with a recent surge in expectations for Trump, the presidential candidate. Despite an extremely narrow race that appears to be a tie, a raft of late polls showed Trump eking ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris. Prediction markets also have Trump as a heavy favorite. However, the odds on at least one site—Polymarket—may have shifted due to the betting activity of just a few individuals who wagered millions of dollars on Trump to win. One big-time bettor in France appears to have bet $45 million on Trump to win the election through four separate accounts. 

Much of Trump’s personal net worth is tied up in his ownership stake in TMTG. As TMTG’s largest individual shareholder, Trump owns about 57% of the company, worth about $6.1 billion. Trump’s overall net worth is somewhere between $7.5 billion and $10 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.