Properly funding Social Security has long been a political football tossed around during campaigns. However, now that the U.S. faces a rapidly aging population, a possible funding crisis looms larger, in a way it hadn’t in previous years. A recent report from the Social Security Board of Trustees found that legally mandated cuts in benefits would start by 2034 because the fund that covers the deficit between outlays and revenue would run out of money.  

Under a Trump presidency, the timeline would move up by a full three years to 2031, according to the report from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) a nonpartisan watchdog. Social Security recipients would also see a steeper cut in benefits.

The group did not do a similar analysis for Vice President Kamala Harris’s policy proposals because they would have a negligible effect on Social Security’s finances. 

Trump’s recent proposal to exempt Social Security benefits from taxes would hurt the program because it would eliminate a funding mechanism without a clear replacement. Currently about 40% of Social Security recipients pay taxes on their benefits. 

CRFB also cited Trump’s other proposals to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime pay, though he hasn’t specified if that would apply to Social Security and Medicare taxes or just federal income tax. Meanwhile, Trump’s plan for massive deportations would hurt the program because many undocumented immigrants pay Social Security taxes from their paychecks but don’t receive benefits in retirement, making their presence entirely net positive for its finances, according to the report. 

Trump’s desire to impose widespread tariffs, a major facet of his economic agenda, would also pose problems for Social Security. The tariffs would almost certainly raise the price of goods and services, which would mean the cost-of-living adjustment in Social Security benefits would have to increase. The cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 will be 2.5%. However, Trump’s tariffs are seen as widely inflationary and could lead to price increases that are above that level. In that case, Social Security would have to spend more to keep pace with the broader rate of inflation or recipients would have to face a decline in the real value of their benefits. 

Taken together, the net effect of Trump’s policies would be that Social Security’s cash deficit would increase by $2.3 trillion over 10 years, through 2035, according to CRFB.

When reached for comment the Trump campaign’s national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, said the CRFB had been “consistently wrong throughout the years” and pointed to Trump’s broader economic policies as evidence that Social Security would remain solvent. 

“By unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies, President Trump will quickly rebuild the greatest economy in history and put Social Security on a stronger footing for generations to come, all the while eliminating taxes on Social Security for America’s well-deserving seniors,” she said. 

Meanwhile the Harris campaign used the CRFB study to draw a contrast with Trump. “Vice President Harris is committed to protecting Social Security benefits and is the only candidate who will actually fight for seniors, not just pay them lip service on the campaign trail,” Harris-Walz 2024 spokesperson Joseph Costello said in a statement on Monday. 

The risk of Social Security’s trust fund becoming insolvent has been floated in Washington budgetary circles for decades. The ongoing fear is that when the trust fund runs out of money, the program will only be able to pay what it brings in via payroll tax revenue, meaning future generations won’t receive the same level of entitlements. 

If Social Security’s trust fund were in fact to become insolvent in 2034, based on projections under current law, it would mean a 23% cut across the board, according to a study from the Congressional Budget Office. However, an accelerated timeline under Trump would lead to a 33% cut, the CRFB wrote.  

The CRFB chastised both campaigns for offering few tangible policy proposals meant to secure Social Security’s long-term future. Both candidates may have pledged to “protect Social Security,” but “neither candidate has presented plans to fix Social Security’s finances,” the report reads. 

The consequences of a depleted Social Security trust fund would be significant for those set to retire after a possible insolvency. An earlier CRFB report from this year found that a couple retiring in 2033, the year the group expects Social Security to become insolvent, would see a $16,500 reduction per year in their benefits.