Donald Trump likes to blame Vice President Kamala Harris and his former election opponent, President Joe Biden, for inflation surging in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The attack makes political sense. Even as the Fed declares victory in the fight against inflation, recent polls suggest American voters remain preoccupied with the economy and high prices as they head to the ballot box in November. Most economists, however, believe prices would rise faster under a second Trump administration than under Harris, according to a quarterly survey from the Wall Street Journal.
For the survey, 50 academic, business, and financial economists responded to questions about inflation and other matters. Sixty-eight percent said inflation would likely be higher under a Trump presidency, up from 56% in July, just before Biden dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Harris.
Six economists, or 12% of the sample, said prices would be higher under the Democratic nominee, while 20% said the election result would not make a material difference.
For many economists wary about prices under a Trump presidency, the Republican nominee’s tariff plans loom large. Trump has pledged to double down on the protectionist policies of his first term, proposing a worldwide tariff of 20% on imported goods and a minimum 60% tariff on all Chinese products.
“Since July, it became apparent to us that Trump is even more anti-free-trade than Harris,” Dan Hamilton, director of the center for economic research and forecasting at California Lutheran University, told the Journal.
Both parties embrace costly tariffs
Both political parties have recently embraced populist rhetoric about taxing imports, to the chagrin of many economists and corporate leaders. As Fortune’s Geoff Colvin recently explained, both Harris and Trump like to say they will protect American industry and jobs from overseas competition, but also cloud how how tariffs work in practice.
Americans, in one way or another, are the ones who end up paying the tax. If importers don’t accept lower profits or cut costs (through layoffs or freezing hiring, most likely), they pass the price increase on to consumers.
The trade war Trump instigated in his first term imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans, according to the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank. Recent literature from Federal Reserve economists suggests the tariffs originally instituted in 2018–19 resulted in a net reduction in employment and output, with rising input costs and retaliatory tariffs outweighing the positive benefits to protected firms.
It’s worth noting, of course, that the Biden administration kept most of those tariffs in place. In May 2024, the administration announced tariff hikes on an additional $18 billion of Chinese goods, particularly semiconductors and electric vehicles.
In total, the Tax Foundation has claimed the “Trump-Biden tariffs” will reduce long-run GDP by 0.2% and slash the equivalent of 142,000 full-time jobs. The think tank projects Trump’s proposed tariff hikes, meanwhile, would additionally shrink GDP by at least 0.8% and cut 684,000 jobs. The organization noted its estimates do not account for retaliatory measures from other nations.
Inflation rates have retreated significantly from the four-decade highs they hit in the first year of President Biden’s term, approaching the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In September, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since the early days of the pandemic.
