Analysts holding out for the Fed to rescue the stock market might be waiting in vain, according to a Federal Reserve Bank president who warned investors that it isn’t Jerome Powell’s job to keep Wall Street happy.
“We’ve got to be monitoring the real side of the economy: There’s nothing in the Fed’s mandate that’s about making sure the stock market is comfortable,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told the New York Times. Goolsbee had previously said the Fed was standing by to “fix” the economy if it believed it was broken.
Stocks have had a roller-coaster 48 hours—selling off globally on news about rising U.S. unemployment only to regain some ground this morning as investors calmed down.
In terms of the economy, pressure has been mounting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to make an emergency unscheduled interest-rate cut ahead of the FOMC’s next gathering in September.
The likes of Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel have been leading such calls, with the emeritus professor of finance writing in his weekly commentary for WisdomTree: “The Fed should make an immediate 75 bp inter-meeting cut and follow that up with a 75 bp cut at the September meeting.”
Among Siegel’s reasonings was a damp jobs report, geopolitical uncertainty, and volatility in both the stock and bonds market.
While some correction in the market is healthy because this preemptively pops bubbles, Professor Siegel points out, he adds: “In the short run, if the Fed does not indicate that it will react soon, the outlook is very unsettled.”
The stock market has had a turbulent few days, to say the least. Fanned by fears of the U.S. entering a recession, on Monday Japan’s Nikkei 225 index started with a plunge abroad reminiscent of 1987’s crash before rebounding 11%.
Likewise, yesterday the S&P 500 dropped 3%—its worst day in nearly two years—while the Nasdaq composite slid 3.4% as the once blooming stocks of the Magnificent Seven companies continued to wilt.
Wall Street has been hankering after a rate cut since late last year, tired of borrowing costs remaining above average and consumers being continually squeezed as the base rate stayed at a two-decade high.
Instead, brokers want to see cuts, signalling a return to buoyancy in the economy across metrics like jobs, consumer spending, and cheaper borrowing.
Yet, prompted by a subpar labor report on Friday, experts began to fear that the Fed is holding on too tight and may not—after months of speculation—pull off a “soft landing” and avoid a recession in the U.S.
By Tuesday a whiplashed Wall Street was licking its wounds and charting a route ahead, with many expecting the fluctuations to continue.
What analysts don’t want to see is the dominoes of panic continuing to fall. If an emergency Fed rate cut is off the table, they are leaning heavily into the expectation of a September cut.
“Incoming data have raised concerns that the U.S. economy has hit an air pocket. Financial markets are now pricing in more than 100bp in rate cuts by year-end and significant probability of a 50bp cut in September,” Bank of America’s U.S. economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note seen by Fortune.
“Markets even began discussing whether the Fed needs to deliver intermeeting cuts. A rate cut in September is now a virtual lock, but we do not think the economy needs aggressive, recession-sized cuts.”
Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS, said much the same: “We think volatility is likely to remain high in the near term, and that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates more quickly. But we believe recession fears are overdone.”
A reason to cut
While Powell and his peers have made it clear the Fed will not be pressured by presidential hopefuls, bank analysts, or the market, the Fed does have a dual mandate: Not only is it tasked with ensuring pricing stability by fighting inflation, but it must also support high levels of employment.
And this, Goolsbee said this week, would be a legitimate reason for the Fed to consider cutting.
“The Fed’s job is very straightforward: Maximize employment, stabilize prices, and maintain financial stability. That’s what we’re going to do,” he told CNBC’s Squawk Box Monday. “We’re forward-looking about it. So if the conditions collectively start coming in like that on the through line, there’s deterioration on any of those parts, we’re going to fix it.”
Asked specifically about how markets are responding to cut speculation, Goolsbee added: “It’s the market’s job to react and it’s the Fed’s job to act. One of those moves with a lot more volatility than the other.”