• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

3

Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds

1

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs

2

Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998

3

Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
FinanceEconomy

Weak jobs report shows ‘there’s a strong case’ for Fed rate cuts before next meeting, economist says

Jason Ma
By
Jason Ma
Jason Ma
Weekend Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
Jason Ma
By
Jason Ma
Jason Ma
Weekend Editor
Down Arrow Button Icon
August 3, 2024, 1:21 PM ET
Jerome Powell stands at podium
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at a news conference after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.Andrew Harnik—Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Wall Street has ramped up forecasts on how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates after the disappointing July jobs report raised fears of a recession, and a JPMorgan economist said there’s even an argument to be made for an unscheduled cut.

Recommended Video

Policymakers won’t meet again until Sept. 17 and 18, giving investors a whole month and a half to worry about the economy and markets, after the central bank kept rates steady at its last meeting on Wednesday.

To be sure, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will likely drop more hints about rate cuts at the Jackson Hole conference later this month. And the Fed has made rate moves between meetings in the past, though that has typically come during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the financial crash in 2008.

“With the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to say the Fed should have cut this week,” wrote Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan, in a note on Friday. “It’s also easy to say they will cut soon. How soon and how much are harder questions.”

Even if the weakness in the job market levels off later, the Fed would still appear to be “offsides” by 100 basis points or more, he added.

As a result, Feroli expects the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting and again at the November meeting, then cut by 25 points at each subsequent meeting.

But he could also see a scenario where Powell and company do something even more aggressive.

“From a risk management perspective we think there’s a strong case to act before September 18th,” Feroli wrote. “But perhaps Powell doesn’t want to add more noise to what has already been an event-filled summer.”

Indeed, the twists and turns in the U.S. election season alone have whipsawed markets. After the “Trump trade” was ascendant following the first presidential debate and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, it quickly lost momentum after Vice President Kamala Harris took Joe Biden’s place at the top of the Democratic ticket.

And an emergency rate cut between Fed meetings could even stir up panic rather than calm fears as it might signal a drastic worsening in sentiment among central bankers, who have long maintained they are in no rush to loosen monetary policy.

For its part, JPMorgan now sees the Fed eventually slashing the benchmark rate to around 3%, meaning rate cuts would extend into the third quarter of 2025 and lop off more than 200 basis points from the current rate of 5.25% to 5.5%.

Others on Wall Street have called for investors not to overreact to the sudden weakening in jobs. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist who developed the Sahm Rule recession indicator, told Fortune on Friday that she’s not concerned right now that the U.S. is in a recession.

Even though her namesake rule was triggered by the latest data, which saw the unemployment rate climb to 4.3%, she noted that household income is still growing while consumer spending and business investment remain resilient.

Still, recent trends in the labor market have looked weak at best, said Sahm, who is now chief economist at investment firm New Century Advisors.

“It’s been very accurate over time, so that shouldn’t be dismissed,” she added, noting that “recessions can build slowly, and then come quickly.”

Similarly, Morningstar chief U.S. economist Preston Caldwell said in a note Friday that markets overreacted to the payroll report, but cautioned that it’s still bearish news. And if the data had been available during this past Fed meeting, policymakers would have cut rates, he said.

“Once the unemployment rate gets moving upward, it’s very likely to continue rising,” Caldwell wrote. “Rising unemployment is part of a vicious process of economic contraction. People being unemployed leads to less spending, which causes firms to cut back and unemployment to increase more.”

About the Author
Jason Ma
By Jason MaWeekend Editor

Jason Ma is the weekend editor at Fortune, where he covers markets, the economy, finance, and housing.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Chad Hurley and Steven Chen wearing suits
SuccessWealth
YouTube’s founders split over $650 million when they sold to Google in 2006—had they held out, they could have taken a slice of $550 billion
By Preston ForeJuly 3, 2026
2 hours ago
Photo: Paris, france
Environmentclimate change
Brutal heatwave in France is killing 2,000 people per week, undertakers are overwhelmed, and health agency says there’s worse to come
By John Leicester and The Associated PressJuly 3, 2026
2 hours ago
Photo: World Cup fans drinking.
EconomyEconomics
On Wall Street, analysts increasingly don’t believe the U.S. government’s ‘misleading’ job numbers
By Jim EdwardsJuly 3, 2026
5 hours ago
U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters after signing an executive order dealing with automobile repairs with Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin in the Oval Office at the White House on June 29, 2026 in Washington, DC.
EconomyFed
Trump is already causing a headache for his new Fed chairman, saying the central bank’s board is ‘hostile’ and ‘doing the wrong thing’
By Eleanor PringleJuly 3, 2026
6 hours ago
A $75 billion valuation, 75 million global customers and on its way to America—Revolut is London’s disruptor extraordinaire
EuropeLetter from London
A $75 billion valuation, 75 million global customers and on its way to America—Revolut is London’s disruptor extraordinaire
By Kamal AhmedJuly 3, 2026
6 hours ago
Man in a black hat and jacket
InvestingSpace Exploration
Elon Musk can’t sell a single SpaceX share for a year—and then all the locks crack open at once
By Amanda GerutJuly 3, 2026
7 hours ago

Most Popular

Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
Law
Egg companies made $1.22 billion in profit off a $6 carton — now they’re buying their way out of a price-fixing case with 53 million donated eggs
By Wyatte Grantham-Philips and The Associated PressJuly 2, 2026
23 hours ago
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
AI
Meet the Zillennials: The luckiest micro-generation in the workforce, born between 1993 and 1998
By Nick LichtenbergJuly 3, 2026
10 hours ago
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
Economy
Economists have found an answer to slowing cognitive decline: Avoid retiring early, study finds
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
1 day ago
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
Success
Mark Zuckerberg feeds his cows macadamia nuts and beer to create the 'highest-quality beef in the world' on his $300 million estate in Hawaii
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 2, 2026
24 hours ago
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
Big Tech
As Big Tech showers employees with perks to win the talent war, Nvidia built a nearly $5 trillion company by making people pay for their own lunch
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 1, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 2, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 2, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.