• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it

2

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI

3

Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026

1

Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it

2

Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI

3

Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026
FinanceEconomy

Will Trump’s economic policies really cause ‘the mother of all stagflations’? Here’s what experts say

Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
Will Daniel
By
Will Daniel
Will Daniel
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 22, 2024, 6:00 AM ET
Former US.. Treasury secretary Larry Summers speaks during the World Economic Summit in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2024.
Former US.. Treasury secretary Larry Summers speaks during the World Economic Summit in Washington, DC, on April 17, 2024.Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Harvard economist and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers fears Trump’s economic proposals and penchant for trade wars could lead to a serious bout of stagflation—the toxic combination of high inflation and low growth that wreaked havoc on the U.S. economy in the 1970s. 

Recommended Video

The Federal Reserve has been hoping to prevent this scenario with its policies for years now, but that work could be undone with a few swipes of the pen, at least according to Summers.

“Trump’s tax proposal to replace a major amount of income-tax revenue with tariffs is a prescription for the mother of all stagflations,” the economist wrote in a June 15 tweet. “It burdens the middle class and the poor who purchase goods on international markets. It would also create worldwide economic warfare.”

Trump has said that if he’s re-elected this November, he will impose a 10% tariff on all products imported into the U.S., while also slashing the corporate tax rate from 21% to as low as 15%.

Summers didn’t pull any punches in his critique of that economic agenda last week, warning that Trump’s tariff proposals are likely to cause a significant supply shock in the U.S. as foreign goods suppliers pull back on shipping products to the U.S. or raise prices amid a brewing trade war.

All of that will exacerbate inflation, and could force the Fed to hike rates even more aggressively. The fed funds rate is already at the highest level in 23 years. Summers even said he could see a scenario where mortgage rates surge above 10% for the first time since the 1980s if Trump’s tariffs go through.

“I don’t think there’s been a more inflationary presidential economic policy platform in my lifetime,” he told Bloomberg TV. “This is really dangerous stuff.”

To Summers’ point, the non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics found that Trump’s 10% tariffs on all imported goods, when coupled with the more hefty 60% proposed levy on Chinese imports, would cost the typical middle-class household roughly $1,700 a year in additional costs due to inflation.

Beyond the threat of aggressive tariffs and trade wars, Summers criticized Trump’s desire to curb immigration sharply at a time when an abundant labor supply has helped prevent significant wage pressures that can exacerbate inflation.

“And he’s for scaling back the subsidies to renewable energy, raising energy costs,” Summers added. “So look at it from demand, look at it from supply. This is a prescription for a major increase in inflation.”

However, Bob Elliott, a former Bridgewater exec who now runs Unlimited Funds, argued that only part of Summers’ forecast seems valid in his view. “Tariffs, at their core, are a regressive tax that is inflationary,” Elliott told Fortune. “But they’re also a modest support to U.S. economic conditions.”

Elliott argued that tariffs will, on the margin, bring some goods production back to the U.S. and mildly increase tax revenues. He also noted that Trump’s tax cuts will have a similarly stimulative effect for economic growth by boosting asset prices. 

Still, while Elliott doesn’t foresee anything like the “mother of all stagflations” that Summers is predicting, he doesn’t believe Trump’s policies are the right choice in the current economic environment.

“It would have been a more appropriate set of policies when we were dealing with a low growth environment, with concerns about longer-term deflation,” the Wall Street veteran told Fortune. “We’re kind of in the opposite circumstances today, where growth is pretty good and inflation is too elevated. So the policy is just not consistent with the macroeconomic dynamics that are really in play today.”

About the Author
Will Daniel
By Will Daniel
LinkedIn iconTwitter icon
See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon
Add Fortune on Google for similar content.

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

Scott Wu, in front of a blue background, sits in a gray chair and speaks to a person out of frame.
AIProductivity
Cognition CEO says tech companies got ‘carried away’ with token leaderboards and should measure employees on output instead
By Sasha RogelbergJuly 7, 2026
2 hours ago
Commercial property insurance explained: What it covers for businesses
Personal FinanceInsurance
Commercial property insurance explained: What it covers for businesses
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 7, 2026
4 hours ago
Bill Holland gesturing
SuccessCareers
He went from working in a factory to being rich enough to retire at 32—but 3 decades later, this millionaire still works and takes public transport
By Preston ForeJuly 7, 2026
4 hours ago
What is covered by home insurance? What’s included and common exclusions explained
Personal FinanceInsurance
What is covered by home insurance? What’s included and common exclusions explained
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 7, 2026
4 hours ago
‘Marie Antoinette would feel very comfortable’: How U.S. airlines built their business around big spenders
Travel & LeisureAirline industry
‘Marie Antoinette would feel very comfortable’: How U.S. airlines built their business around big spenders
By Rio Yamat and The Associated PressJuly 7, 2026
6 hours ago
Tech volatility hits highest since dot-com bust next to S&P 500
Investingtech stocks
Tech volatility hits highest since dot-com bust next to S&P 500
By Bernard Goyder and BloombergJuly 7, 2026
6 hours ago

Most Popular

Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it
Success
Ex-PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi worked from midnight until 5 a.m. as a receptionist to pay for her Yale degree—and she says ‘respect went up’ because of it
By Preston ForeJuly 6, 2026
1 day ago
Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI
AI
Shark Tank's Kevin O'Leary says if he were 25 today, he'd chase these two booming opportunities in the world of AI
By Marco Quiroz-GutierrezJuly 5, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of July 6, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJuly 6, 2026
1 day ago
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
Success
Even as Elon Musk calls philanthropy ‘very hard,’ everyday Americans gave a record $617 billion—despite feeling the squeeze over the cost of living
By Preston ForeJuly 4, 2026
4 days ago
The man who ran Bernie's campaign says Democrats are still making the same mistakes with Democratic Socialists, and they should laud Mamdani's win
Politics
The man who ran Bernie's campaign says Democrats are still making the same mistakes with Democratic Socialists, and they should laud Mamdani's win
By Catherina GioinoJuly 6, 2026
23 hours ago
China’s birth rate just hit its lowest point since 1949—and Trip.com cofounder James Liang thinks that’s a threat to innovation
Asia
China’s birth rate just hit its lowest point since 1949—and Trip.com cofounder James Liang thinks that’s a threat to innovation
By Nicholas GordonJuly 7, 2026
13 hours ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.