• Home
  • Latest
  • Fortune 500
  • Finance
  • Tech
  • Leadership
  • Lifestyle
  • Rankings
  • Multimedia

Trendingnow

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there

1

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military

2

'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032

3

Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Financenational debt

Jamie Dimon believes U.S. public debt is the ‘most predictable crisis’ the economy faces—and yet in just 3 months America has added $2.1 trillion to its tab

Eleanor Pringle
By
Eleanor Pringle
Eleanor Pringle
Senior Reporter, Economics and Markets
Down Arrow Button Icon
Eleanor Pringle
By
Eleanor Pringle
Eleanor Pringle
Senior Reporter, Economics and Markets
Down Arrow Button Icon
June 21, 2024, 7:05 AM ET
Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase
Jamie Dimon is one of many influential figures concerned about national debt—and the figure just keeps rising.Victor J. Blue—Bloomberg/Getty Images

America’s public debt problem is no longer an issue which can be swept under the rug: Everyone from Wall Street veteran Jamie Dimon to Fed Chair Jerome Powell is sounding the alarm.

Recommended Video

But while some of the most influential figures in the economy are calling for an action plan, the government has continued to spend at a rate which will add $2.1 trillion to the country’s bill by 2034.

That’s according to the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). In February the CBO said its predicted deficit for the year was $1.5 trillion, growing to $2.6 trillion by 2034.

However in a report released this week the CBO wrote: “In CBO’s current projections, the deficit for 2024 is $400 billion (or 27%) larger than it was in the agency’s February 2024 projections, and the cumulative deficit over the 2025–2034 period is larger by $2.1 trillion (10%).”

Currently America’s national debt stands at $34.7 trillion—though the figure itself is not what has so many economists worried. Instead, experts are concerned about America’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which indicates how much the country owes versus what it produces and thus, how able it is to pay it back.

The CBO didn’t have stellar news on that account either. It reported debt held by the public will rise from 99% of GDP this year to 122% by 2034—surpassing its previous high of 106% in 1946, at the end of the Second World War.

And war is, once again, one of the major factors contributing to America’s ongoing outlays. The CBO adds: “The largest contributor to the cumulative increase was the incorporation of recently enacted legislation … which added $1.6 trillion to projected deficits.

“That legislation included emergency supplemental appropriations that provided $95 billion for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and countries in the Indo-Pacific region.”

On top of the initial legislative hit is the ongoing funding obligations America is legally required to uphold, boosting outlays by $900 billion through to 2034.

While financial support to nations at war forms a chunk of the increase between the February 2024 projection and this month’s, other obligations form the crux of America’s tab.

What the CBO defines as mandatory spending includes the likes of Medicare and Social Security, as well as defense spending and unemployment compensation. The CBO wrote: “The aging of the population causes the number of beneficiaries of Social Security and Medicare to grow faster than the overall population. In addition, federal costs per beneficiary for the major health care programs continue to rise faster than GDP per person.

“As a result of those two trends, outlays for Social Security and Medicare increase in relation to GDP from 2024 to 2034.”

‘Predictable crisis’

Experts remain divided on how much of an issue public debt will prove to be—and it comes down to how necessary they believe the spending is, and their outlook for the economy moving forward.

Those on the bullish end are hopeful that an uptick in economic growth will offset the debt and interest payments in future. They also add that the vast majority of spending in recent years—under various political parties—has been absolutely critical for the country to navigate the likes of the coronavirus pandemic.

On the matter of economic growth, the CBO disagrees with this outlook. In its June update the nonpartisan organization wrote it expects the economy to grow more slowly in calendar years 2024 and 2025 than it grew in 2023, averaging roughly 1.8% between 2026 and 2034.

On the more cautious side of the argument are those who, while conscious of the nature of spending in recent years, want to see administrations exercise more restraint—or at least set out a plan for how they will curb outlays in the future.

Among those is JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. Earlier this year at an event at the Bipartisan Policy Center, Ryan described the debt spiral as the “most predictable crisis we’ve ever had,” which Dimon heartily agreed with.

Likewise, professor Joao Gomes, vice dean of research at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, has long warned of the “severe and … probably irreversible scars on our economy and society” if federal spending continues unchecked.

Prior to appearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on the Budget in April, professor Gomes told Fortune: “It could derail the next administration, frankly. If they come up with plans for large tax cuts or another big fiscal stimulus, the markets could rebel. Interest rates could just spike right there, and we would have a crisis in 2025. It could very well happen. I’m very confident by the end of the decade one way or another, we will be there.” 

About the Author
Eleanor Pringle
By Eleanor PringleSenior Reporter, Economics and Markets
LinkedIn icon

Eleanor Pringle is an award-winning senior reporter at Fortune covering news, the economy, and personal finance. Eleanor previously worked as a business correspondent and news editor in regional news in the U.K. She completed her journalism training with the Press Association after earning a degree from the University of East Anglia.

See full bioRight Arrow Button Icon

Latest in Finance

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025

Most Popular

Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Finance
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam
By Fortune Editors
October 20, 2025
Fortune Secondary Logo
Rankings
  • 100 Best Companies
  • Fortune 500
  • Global 500
  • Fortune 500 Europe
  • Most Powerful Women
  • World's Most Admired Companies
  • See All Rankings
  • Lists Calendar
Sections
  • Finance
  • Fortune Crypto
  • Features
  • Leadership
  • Health
  • Commentary
  • Success
  • Retail
  • Mpw
  • Tech
  • Lifestyle
  • CEO Initiative
  • Asia
  • Politics
  • Conferences
  • Europe
  • Newsletters
  • Personal Finance
  • Environment
  • Magazine
  • Education
Customer Support
  • Frequently Asked Questions
  • Customer Service Portal
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms Of Use
  • Single Issues For Purchase
  • International Print
Commercial Services
  • Advertising
  • Fortune Brand Studio
  • Fortune Analytics
  • Fortune Conferences
  • Business Development
  • Group Subscriptions
About Us
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • About Us
  • Press Center
  • Work At Fortune
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Site Map
  • Facebook icon
  • Twitter icon
  • LinkedIn icon
  • Instagram icon
  • Pinterest icon

Latest in Finance

‘I love the inflation’: Trump is ‘not concerned’ about inflation hitting 4% for the first time since 2023. ‘The numbers were great’
EconomyDonald Trump
‘I love the inflation’: Trump is ‘not concerned’ about inflation hitting 4% for the first time since 2023. ‘The numbers were great’
By The Associated Press and Christopher RugaberJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
A man guides a ship in the water.
EnergyOil
Analysts expected oil to surge above $200 but China has quietly kept prices half of that—and can’t for much longer
By Sasha RogelbergJune 10, 2026
3 hours ago
Meryl Streep says she was ‘ready to retire’ when the call for ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ came—so she demanded they double her salary or nothing
SuccessThe Promotion Playbook
Meryl Streep says she was ‘ready to retire’ when the call for ‘Devil Wears Prada 2’ came—so she demanded they double her salary or nothing
By Orianna Rosa RoyleJune 10, 2026
7 hours ago
Kevin Warsh (L) shakes hands with U.S. President Donald Trump after being sworn in as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the East Room of the White House on May 22, 2026 in Washington, DC.
EconomyInflation
Inflation is back above 4% for the first time since 2023—but Kevin Warsh might catch a break
By Eva RoytburgJune 10, 2026
8 hours ago
swiss
EuropeImmigration
Switzerland to cast world’s first ever vote on whether to cap population
By Jamey Keaten and The Associated PressJune 10, 2026
8 hours ago
Top CD rates from major banks on June 10, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
Personal FinanceCertificates of Deposit (CDs)
Top CD rates from major banks on June 10, 2026: Chase CDs, Bank of America CDs, Citibank CDs, and more
By Joseph HostetlerJune 10, 2026
8 hours ago

Most Popular

Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
Asia
Pentagon accuses Alibaba, Baidu and BYD, three of China's biggest companies, of supporting the Chinese military
By Kate O'Keeffe and BloombergJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
Economy
'We are rapidly running out of time': Watchdog sounds Social Security alarm after 22% cut confirmed for 2032
By Nick LichtenbergJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
Success
Costco CEO Ron Vachris rose from forklift driver to the C-suite without a college degree: ‘Don’t chase a title’ is the career advice that got him there
By Preston ForeJune 8, 2026
2 days ago
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of oil as of June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
Investing
Wall Street dumped nearly $1 trillion in tech stocks by midday—then clawed it back and bought peanut butter and paint
By Eva RoytburgJune 9, 2026
24 hours ago
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Personal Finance
Current price of silver as of Tuesday, June 9, 2026
By Joseph HostetlerJune 9, 2026
1 day ago

© 2026 Fortune Media IP Limited. All Rights Reserved. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy | CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice | Do Not Sell/Share My Personal Information
FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Offers may be subject to change without notice.